The Era That Never Was

Perhaps this write-up is premature. 

After all, we quite literally just watched a third string quarterback take over a team mid-season and then string off seven straight victories to take us deep into the playoffs. In six years under ShanaLynch, backup quarterbacks have made 38 regular season starts—good for a depressing 38.7% of all games. Only once—in 2019—did our starter make it through the entire season, and only twice—in 2019 and 2021—did we need less than THREE quarterbacks to get through the year. Unfortunately, injuries have been synonymous with our quarterbacks. That said, this week’s news of Sam Darnold winning the backup QB spot over Trey Lance makes it highly likely that any future successes—or lack thereof—of the former No.3 overall pick who we moved mountains to draft will happen somewhere outside of Santa Clara. 

As we’ve seen (too many times) before, anything can happen when it’s us and the quarterback position. But with the Niners fielding trade offers, it seemed like the right time to talk Trey Lance and the many moving parts that have led to where we are today.

What Happened Developmentally?

Brock Purdy is the simplest answer here, but the real answer is far more complex. 

When the Niners traded up to the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, they did so specifically to target their quarterback of the future. Coming off the heels of a disappointing 2020 season in which Garoppolo was in and out of the lineup and started only 6 games (this just one season removed from a year when he blew out his ACL and started only 3 games) the Niners knew that they needed more consistency and upside at the quarterback position. In Trey Lance, they saw someone whose escapability and durability would raise the offense’s floor and whose dual-threat potential and strong arm would increase its ceiling. Their contention window was firmly open, and they felt like they couldn’t waste their opportunity relying on the oft-injured Jimmy G.

That said, a healthy Jimmy G won a lot of games with the Niners, and—given he was set to return to health in 2021—the Niners found themselves in a unique position. Unlike most teams, the Niners did NOT have to play their developmental quarterback right away because they were actually more viable contenders under their incumbent. It’s easy to tell a rebuilding team, “hey, let’s go through the lumps together to let this kid grow” when you’re topping out at six wins and another top ten pick. Much harder when your veterans have just been to the Super Bowl and you’re ready to contend now. 

So the Niners sat Lance. He played sparingly (2.5 games as a starter), and we were once again some passing game deficiencies and a banged-up Jimmy G away from another Super Bowl appearance. Theoretically, nothing during that 2021 season altered Lance’s early development. But that’s not entirely true.

Lost in the shuffle and excitement of the crazy multiple-quarterback shredding of the Raiders in the last preseason game of 2021 was the fact that Lance smashed his finger. After a few weeks off, he returned to play in spot duty, but his throwing motion was off, and—as he admitted this summer—this set him back to the point where fixing it became his primary focus of the following off-season. What we also lost when Lance’s finger hit the helmet of that Vegas defender was any real potential for a dual-quarterback system, and thus—any chance for Lance to get meaningful snaps as a rookie. While there were a number of issues that would have made such a system far from a slam dunk—including issues of offensive flow that we saw in the early parts of 2021—the likelihood of Lance getting a handful of snaps here and there on designed runs and option plays was much higher if he was actually available early in the season. But he wasn’t. Perhaps we would have tried it again after Lance got his first injury-replacement start against the Cardinals in week 5, but Lance sprained his knee in that game and didn’t play another meaningful snap until his next injury fill-in start in week 16. For a player who needed reps, tightening of his throwing motion, and better lower body mechanics, finger and knee injuries that kept him from seeing relevant snaps were a tough developmental blow. But at this point, Lance was still 100% our guy.

With so few reps in his first year, and having spent much of the off-season fixing his throwing motion rather than fine-tuning his quarterback skills, Lance entered last year’s training camp as a glorified rookie. Due to his college shutting down football during COVID, he had started only three games of football in two whole years, and now was the time to binge those reps that he so desperately needed. With Jimmy G’s contract up, this was always the chunk of time that the Niners had set aside to let Lance grow, make mistakes, and—hopefully—improve enough by the end of the season to make us dangerous in the playoffs. After starting the opener in a monsoon, Lance broke his ankle on the first offensive drive of week 2, and his season was over. This setback was devastating. Three years of football. Just over four starts. But it wasn’t by any means the nail in the coffin. Until Brock Purdy happened.

We’ll talk more about Purdy later, but when the guy who replaces you (or, technically, replaces your replacement) strings off seven straight wins (including two in the playoffs) that guy is gonna have the inside track to the starting job moving forward. But it’s not just Purdy’s presence that supplanted Lance. It’s how what Purdy does so well meshes naturally with what our offense wants from our quarterbacks.

Purdy, a four-year starter in college, doesn’t need a lot of practice reps and can start games fast. He excels at the quick game—which is the proverbial bread-and-butter of our passing attack—and he’s just slippery enough to extend plays and nullify negatives. Lance, both in practice and in games, is a slow starter who takes a while to get in rhythm. His speed and big arm can threaten defenses in a way that Purdy can’t, but he hasn’t been quick, accurate, or decisive enough on the underneath passes to be consistent in setting up those chunk plays. In the simplest of terms, Lance was drafted to eventually raise the ceiling of our offense with his legs and his strong arm, but —in Purdy—the Niners stumbled upon a quarterback who instead has raised the offense’s floor right now. And for a team that went to the Super Bowl in 2019 and has been knocking on the door every season since the right now of it all is vitally important.

It pains me how much Lance’s journey with the Niners parallels James Wiseman’s with the Warriors. This is the drawback of the “two timelines” strategy but on a smaller scale. It’s not that it can’t work, it’s that your margin for error has shrunk exponentially. Wiseman’s rookie year—when Klay was out and the team was basically running tryouts for who could hack it alongside Steph and Draymond for their championship run the next season—was his time to make mistakes and grow. But it took him a while. Then he got banged up. Then he missed the entirety of his sophomore year. Months later, the ever-closing nature of championship windows meant the Warriors’ patience was up, and Wiseman had to be traded. It didn’t matter that the idea of a 7-3 pogo stick as a rim runner and post protector was exactly what the Warriors needed to elevate their system and cement their status as a front-line contender because that was still just an idea. And the future had finally become too far from the present. 

I don’t blame either franchise for either pick. You take your swings, you trust your scouting departments, and you aim for stars at positions you’re lacking in when you’re picking high because you never wanna be picking that high again. The teams that have been lauded for being frugal with their spending and accumulating picks always get back slaps from the analytics bros, but they also don’t win anything. I love draft picks more than most, but when you putter around trying to be conservative and waiting for things to fall into your laps at the behest of “market value spending,” you quickly become the Colts—a team that always had the most cap space and great draft capital but collapsed like a house of cards before ever threatening contention and are now in a top-down rebuild. At the time, the Chiefs “overspent” when they moved up to #10 to draft Patrick Mahomes. So too did the Bills when they hopped to #7 for Josh Allen. You take your swings and you live with the consequences.

But in Wiseman—and now in Lance—we’ve seen two supreme athletes with truncated college careers (Wiseman’s by the NCAA, Lance’s by COVID), who were brought in to revolutionize a system that is already humming at a championship level, but whose lack of immediately meshing play styles and terrible injury luck made them miss the window they were afforded. Because when you’re on a rebuilding team, you can fuck around in the back of the class and eventually figure your shit out. After all, part of this time is for roster culling and everyone else is figuring their shit out with you. But when you’re learning on a contender, you’re in an advanced placement class, and you can get left behind in a hurry. That window for you to prove yourself is minuscule.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from both of these cases is that when you’re swinging for a home run-type player, you’d better make sure that what he can do now has a role in the system you already have in place. If Wiseman excelled as a pick-and-roll target off the jump, he could have at least settled into that particular role as the rest of his game came along. There would have been more patience for his future development because he had a function in the present rotation. Likewise, if Lance was comfortable executing the short game, then the Niners could let him take his time sharpening the physical tools that they drafted him for in the first place. Reps would lead to more reps, which would in turn lead to more development and a better chance of each player reaching their sizeable potential.

I don’t think this means Lance’s career in the NFL is over, and I’m much more bullish on his prospects than Wiseman’s. Lance is still only 23 and younger than nine of the rookies currently on the Niners’ roster. He’s a smart guy and a strong locker room presence who seems to approach the game the right way. And he still has all those physical tools that made him so impressive out of college. But this dude needs reps. We knew that when he was drafted, yet for some reason people are shocked by his lack of development without them. 19 starts into his NFL career, Jalen Hurts was still a guy completing 17 passes a game and turning the ball over on low volume and low efficiency. Josh Allen—the poster child for strong-armed mobile developmental QBs—had 27 NFL starts before his runner-up MVP year. In the last game before he broke out as one of the best QBs in the league, Josh Allen did THIS. With one minute left in the fourth quarter! In the playoffs!

If I told you three years ago that Lance wasn’t going to be a plus-level NFL quarterback four starts into his career, you would have said, “Well, yeah, obviously.” The problem is that you would have hoped he was queuing up his fifth start sometime in 2021, or—at worst—September of 2022. Instead, we’re rapidly approaching September 2023, and Lance is stuck at four career starts for the foreseeable future.

In a system like the Falcons’—where he could realistically start right now—it’s not hard to imagine Lance piloting Arthur Smith’s run-first deep play action offense with bombs to Pitts and London while working off the gravitational pull of Bijan Robinson. Due to that, a Ryan Tannehill-esque mid-career emergence is far from out of the question. In fact, both Tannehill—a converted wide receiver—and the 49ers’ own Alex Smith—who had a bumpy transition as the first modern shotgun spread quarterback to make the move to the NFL—share a number of developmental traits and hurdles with Lance. But the only way Lance fulfills his potential is by playing meaningful snaps in games that matter. And the only place he can get those snaps is outside of Santa Clara.

So What Happens Next?

Despite all this, I think there’s a likely chance we just keep him. Whether that means we move him before the trade deadline when teams are desperate or starting to “evaluate young talent” (aka phone it in) or after the season, I don’t know, but the “move him already!” crowd should chill for a number of reasons. 

First off, cutting him is out of the question, as it would mean releasing an asset for no reason at the sport’s most important position AND it would actually lose us money because of the massive dead cap infraction that we’d incur. You just don’t cut guys for no reason unless they are locker room cancers. Unless Lance just demands it—which doesn’t sound like something he’d do—words cannot describe how stupid this would be. 

Next, there’s everything I already said about our terrible injury-luck at quarterback. We have an undersized quarterback coming off a major injury and a backup with a history of minor injuries. Having a good third quarterback is evidently much more important to us than everyone else. Brandon Allen is an excellent fourth quarterback. He’s also worse than Trey Lance. And we needed five quarterbacks last year. I’m not pretending we’ll be able to stash Allen on the practice squad as our fourth quarterback, but I’m also not pretending he’s better than Lance.

Early reports on the finances of a trade have been erratic, to say the least, but I believe trading Lance would save us less than $1M this year—since he’s already been paid out his training camp roster bonus—and $5.31M next year. So it makes a lot of sense that Lance—if he’s still QB3 by the end of the year—won’t be on the team a year from now, but the push to move him immediately is lessened due to how little money we’d save this season.

But what does his trade market look like? I’m not sure anyone knows. How little he’s played and how late we are in training camp certainly knocks his current value. Basically, every team—even those with terrible QB rooms (Falcons, Bucs)—have recently named their 2023 starters, and going back on that immediately with a trade for a dude who doesn’t know any of the offense is pretty sus. Additionally, anyone with a young QB who they want to be the face of their franchise won’t bring in Lance because the specter of his ability will be a bit too bright given the very unique circumstances that have led to this situation. Yes, Lance is a former high-draft pick quarterback who lost his job, but he lost it due to injury and hasn’t had time to develop. Unlike someone like Mitch Trubisky—who had four years of starting to show what he couldn’t do—or Zach Wilson—who got 22 starts before he was actively replaced by others on his team and then Aaron Rodgers—Lance hasn’t been able to prove what he can or can’t do. And, just like when drafting a quarterback in the first place, that means his value will vary greatly depending on who you ask.

Also, who are the Niners willing to trade with? They want to do best by Lance but they certainly won’t be trading him to anyone in-division—even if every single one of them would be interested. But what about someone within the conference? While the Falcons have Desmond Ridder—and won’t make a move due to reasons discussed above—Lance is kind of the perfect fit for what they want to do offensively. The Bucs? It would make sense to bring in a guy with better upside than the motley crue they’ve got at quarterback—even if it takes him a while to learn the offense—but they might be keen to #Collapse4Caleb on the back of FrankenBakerTrask before firing Todd Bowles and doing a franchise reset. Washington is probably in the same boat, although Sam Howell has looked surprisingly competent through the preseason. It would be very Washington of them to win just enough games to miss out on the one or two big-name quarterbacks in this upcoming draft. The Vikings? They have a single year left on Kirk Cousins’ deal and a Lance-friendly offense, and having a potential future starter learning under Cousins could be smart—especially after they already jettisoned theoretical incumbent Kellen Mond. And while I expect them to regress this year, they should certainly be competitive enough to be clear of the top handful of picks needed to acquire a bluechipper QB next April. Similarly, the Broncos could use some insurance in case Russ is as washed as he’s looked the past year, but his contract is so overwhelming they’re probably just content to blow up the stadium ala The Dark Knight Rises and rebuild it once the dead cap space clears. After all, we may adopted the darkness, but Sean Payton was born in it. That’s why he did that bounty scandal that everyone forgets about. 

Realistically, I think the right situation could net as high as a second-day pick, but I don’t know if that situation exists at the moment. I’d say hold him—at least until the trade deadline, if not through the season. While his value could increase near the trade deadline and will almost certainly drop after the season, the market could still be healthier than it is right now. And you need a healthy market (or someone bidding against themselves) to increase return. The Niners have been very frank about wanting to do what’s best for Lance, so perhaps they move him for a late-round pick just to give him that change of scenery. But if we’re looking at a return in the 5th round or later, I don’t see how we benefit from moving him now versus waiting it out. For all the reasons I’ve already said, the kid can still get better. And while Purdy should 100% be our starter given what he’s accomplished, it seems foolish to move on from Lance for minimal gain.

It’s also worth noting somewhere here that if Purdy wasn’t around and this was a competition for the starting job, I think Lance would have an edge over Darnold. When it comes to the starter, you can take a bit more of a swing on upside and trajectory when everything else is relatively equal. But with a backup, you’re looking to mitigate damage and prevent the floor from falling out. At this point in their respective developments, Darnold is just much more experienced and the safer option.

If Lance is a guy who takes a bit of time to warm up and needs practice reps to succeed, he’s not getting those as the backup QB. Although I’m sure it’s far from most peoples’ minds at the moment, running the scout team once the season starts may actually be the best way for Lance to develop (other than starting, obviously). Backups don’t get many live reps in practice, and—if all goes according to plan—they don’t play at all in games. While QB3 plays even less in games, they get a ton of reps running the scout team through the week, and—as stated ad nauseam—anything that gets Lance more reps aids in his development. It’s the consolation prize of all consolation prizes, but it’s something.

While this is undoubtedly bummer news for our fanbase and for a dude who I think we’ve all been rooting for, try not to get too down on Trey or the Niners. It’s easy to poke holes at some of our high-profile misses when you forget how many lower-profile dudes we’ve unearthed and developed into All-Pros. There’s a very real chance we have the single most talented roster in the NFL this year, and—quite literally—you can’t have the most talented roster in the NFL and be as bad at talent evaluation as the comment boards say. 

The last thing I’ll leave you with is this. Over the past six seasons—or the entirety of the time Shanahan and Lynch have helmed the Niners—these are the quarterbacks who have piloted their teams to conference championship games and the number of champ games they’ve played in:

5 - Patrick Mahomes
3 - Jimmy Garoppolo/Brock Purdy, Tom Brady
2 - Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow
1 - Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Blake Bortles

That’s four slam-funk first-ballot Hall of Famers, five of the past six league MVPs, and the top four MVP vote-getters of 2022. And Jimmy G/Brock Purdy have combined for more appearances than almost all of them. This is despite ShanaLynch taking over what was unquestionably the worst team and roster in the NFL when they arrived. 

We have proven we can win without elite quarterback play. Perhaps we’re the only team that’s proven that in today’s NFL. And while Lance was meant to be that elite quarterback, break that habit, and make things easier for us, hopefully, that number next to Purdy can keep increasing. Maybe—a year (or ten) from now—his name won’t look so weird in the company he’s surrounded by. Only time will tell. But for now, we’re in good hands. So take a deep breath, relax, and get excited for September 10th.

Go Niners 👍🏈

2023 NFL Draft Recap

this photo stolen DIRECTLY from the Niners’ official website

It’s tougher to get excited about the draft when we’re not picking until the end of the third round, but it only takes some bad luck and one trash draft to derail the fortunes of a contender (AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James anyone?). Luckily, it doesn’t seem like we’ll have to worry about that. While the nine dudes we added over the weekend (and the incoming UDFA crop) didn’t make up the flashiest haul, they look to be a very solid group of contributors.

A couple of items of note:

If you ever HAVE to be short on early picks, this was a good year for it, as this draft class was lacking in elite-level talent but was deep through the middle rounds. That timing was fortuitous but also intentional from our front office. As a team that’s coming off back-to-back NFC Championships, is returning all but two starters (three if you count Moseley), and had already filled most of those starting positions before the draft even started, there aren’t a lot of snaps up for grabs heading into 2023. And with teams typically knowing the strengths and weaknesses of any given draft class a year or two out from the draft itself, the Niners were certainly intentional in which years’ picks got traded in the Lance and CMC deals. With our payroll pushed up against the cap and some tough decisions coming next off-season, I wouldn’t expect us to be as willing to part with high-end draft picks leading up to next year’s draft. From a fan perspective and a team-building one, that’s certainly a good thing.

Football character and locker room culture fit has been a huge part of our evaluation process ever since the whiffs on Rueben Foster and Joe Williams in year one under ShanaLynch, and this class is no exception. While our obsession with fit and mentality sometimes leads us to pass on guys who are athletically superior but have question marks in their character or approach, that stubbornness has also been a major factor in explaining the unreal hit rate of our Day 3 and UDFA pickups. This year’s class is absolutely littered with team captains and guys who college coaches can’t stop raving about as team leaders and tone setters. 

Schematic fit was excellent in this class as well. Nearly all of our draftees are guys whose so-called weaknesses can be hidden by what they’ll be asked to do in our particular schemes. A few of them (the seventh-round fullback in particular) literally couldn’t have asked for a better NFL fit. 

Finally, our class has a ton of guys who could become special teams standouts. It makes sense because special teams are the best place to stash a guy who might get swooped off your practice squad without exposing him to offensive or defensive reps that he’s not ready for. As stated above, there are not a lot of roster spots available on our team, but special teams has—and will always be—a great way for young dudes who are still learning the craft to carve out a role so that they can stick around long enough to see offensive or defensive snaps.

Now, onto the picks.

S, Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State (Round 3, Pick 87)

Our first pick of the draft, and—based on value and talent—probably our best. Ji’Ayir Brown sliding down enough to still be available at the bottom of the third was, for many media types and draft pundits, the most optimistic scenario the Niners could have hoped for given where we were picking. We had to package some picks to move up 12 spots to secure him, but it was well worth the cost.

Brown could have the best instincts of any safety in this draft class, and he has shown tremendous versatility playing the type of interchangeable safety role that we so commonly employ. Brown’s 10 interceptions over the past two years were more than anyone else in FBS football, he led the Nittany Lions in tackles last season, and—despite playing safety—he racked up 4.5 sacks last year as well.

He’s got excellent ball skills in coverage, is heady and physical against both the pass and the run, and fills hard when taking on ball carriers. He was also a team captain this past year, is a known leader and tone-setter, and won Penn State’s “Iron Lion” award for his work in the weight room. 

So why did he slide far enough that we decided to package a few picks and get him in the back half of the third round? Brown, like many hard-hitting safeties, needs to play a little bit more disciplined and under control. Sometimes he’s in such a hurry to make a play or a hit that he takes a bad angle or fails to wrap up. But really what made him slide the most is that he ran a 4.65 at the combine and a 4.58 at his pro day. Many NFL scouting departments don’t think safeties can be high-level players in the NFL if they don’t have plus speed. Of course, instincts and trigger speed will make a guy play a lot faster than his timed speed, and Lynch noted that based on our scouting department’s speed tracking data and Penn State’s GPS tracking, Brown was actually the second fastest of all safeties in this draft class.

If Brown sounds a lot like a safety we drafted in the fifth round out of USC two years ago, the comparisons are valid. Brown will likely start the season backing up Tashaun Gipson with plans for Brown to take over the starting role in his sophomore season. In the immediate future, he’ll likely be getting snaps in our three-safety looks and—given how strong he is as a blitzer and near the LOS—might get some looks as a big nickel as well. 

K, Jake Moody, Michigan (Round 3, Pick 99)

According to the internet, all the good vibes from the Brown pick were quickly extinguished when the Niners picked a kicker just 12 spots later. But I understand the decision. 

Robbie Gould is a free agent and is looking to play closer to home. Our trade for Zane Gonzalez was for a late round swap two years from now and includes no guaranteed money. And this was supposedly an exceptionally good class of kickers. 

The Niners probably wanted to take Moody in the fourth round and avoid making him the highest-picked kicker since (gulp) Roberto Aguayo was picked by the Bucs in the second round back in 2015. For reference, Aguayo was the most accurate kicker in college football history, won the Lou Groza Award was a true freshman, declared for the draft after three years, then was promptly out of the league after converting only 71% of his kicks as a rookie. That said, the Niners didn’t have a fourth-round pick this year, and—given that the Patriots drafted another kicker just 13 picks later—there was a 0% chance Moody would be available the next time we were on the board. If Moody was our guy and we wanted him, we had to pick him with one of the picks at the bottom of the third round.

While Robbie’s regular-season efficiency was starting to waver a bit in his year-40 season, he’s still a career-perfect kicker in the playoffs, and—for a team with aspirations of contending for a Super Bowl—the coaching staff doesn’t want to have to worry about their kicker in high-pressure situations. Now, we just have to hope they picked the right guy.

FWIW, I’ve seen Moody kick a lot and that dude was as close to guaranteed as a college kicker can possibly be. In 2021 he converted 92% of his field goals en route to being named the Lou Groza Award Winner. In 2022, his efficiency dipped down to 82% (mostly due to being 3-of-7 on kicks over 50 yards), but he led the nation in field goals made. Just as importantly, his clutch kicking was immaculate. I can’t actually remember him faltering late in any close game, with a game-winner in icy conditions against Illinois, a big kick against Michigan State after the dreaded three consecutive timeouts to ice him, and converting a 59-yarder to end the half in the college football semifinal against TCU. The only 4th quarter field goal I can remember him missing was against Ohio State last year, and that one was from 57 yards out.

The other kicker in the running was the 2022 Lou Groza Award Winner, Chad Ryland (who ended up going to the Patriots). Ryland played at Eastern Michigan for four years before taking a grad transfer at Maryland. He’s got a bigger leg than Moody and touchbacks should be the norm for Ryland, but—given he played at Eastern and Maryland—he’s been far less tested in pressure situations. Also, Moody’s overall accuracy is better over a greater sample size. Ryland has more potential for booming field goals, but on anything under 50 yards, Moody was 48-of-52 (92.3%) over the past two years. 

After Aguayo flamed out in such spectacular fashion, it’s hard to say anything is certain when it comes to kickers transitioning to the NFL. And if Tucker Kraft or Marte Mapu—two guys I really liked—were still around at 99, then I’d have been more upset about picking a specialist where we did. But given our options were drafting Moody or Ryland at the bottom of the third or—at best—settling for the third-best kicker in this draft class, I feel much better about securing the guy we like the most. And I definitely feel better about this than when we took a punter in the fourth round.

Even if drafting specialists before the late rounds is a total boner kill. 

TE, Cameron Latu, Alabama (Round 3, Pick 101)

If Brown and Moody were known quantities in college, Latu is much more of a developmental wild card, as his draft grades ranged from the third-to-fifth round. I don’t know the actual stats, but this certainly seemed like the most tight end-heavy draft in recent memory. The depth of the class was hyped up for months in the lead-up to the draft, and 15 were drafted this weekend, a whopping 8 of them in rounds two and three. Latu capped that run at the end of the third and is intriguing both for what he’s accomplished and what he could be able to do down the road.

At 6-4, 242 pounds, Latu excels in the red zone, catching 12 touchdown passes over the past two seasons (8 in 2021, which was an Alabama TE record). While scouts were hoping he’d springboard his junior year into a massive 2022, he missed two games with an ankle/foot injury early in the season, which nagged him through the rest of the campaign.

While Latu played both in-line and split out in the slot and has reps blocking in schemes similar to ours (Bama apparently lifted a bunch of Niners runs after seeing how successful they were), he’s not the biggest or the most explosive player. He’s smoother than he is fast, and his paltry two missed tackles last season means he’s far from qualified for membership into the YAC Bros. 

Since this is the highest we’ve picked a tight end since Vance McDonald, the Niners are clearly banking on Latu’s development unlocking another level of skill and—with increased knowledge and confidence—play speed than he’s shown thus far. Considering Latu was recruited to Alabama as a defensive end and didn’t switch over to offense until 2019, it’s a reasonable assumption. The Niners also believe that Latu’s 2022 injury depressed his draft stock a bit, as his play picked up the further away he got from the injury. This too seems fair, as Latu—in his first-ever start against Miami in 2021—broke as many tackles on a single touchdown catch as he did in the entirety of 2022. His junior tape shows a knack for open-field running that his senior film does not, and—even if he’s not a super sudden athlete—there’s likely more YAC potential than his athletic profile and senior stats would indicate. All that said, was this a reach?

If we were dead set on a tight end, then the other tight ends clustered around Latu included Davis Allen (Clemson), Josh Whyle (Cincinnati), and Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion). I’m okay saying Kuntz would NOT have been a better pick in the third. I know people love his size and athleticism, but he’s very much a project and may never have the power and bulk to be a solid blocker in the NFL. He also went in the seventh round. We need a tight end who can play sub snaps now, and—due to the fact that we ask our tight ends to block a lot—that guy can’t be a poor man’s Jimmy Graham-type. That need for an immediate dual-threat might have also pushed out Josh Whyle (who went to the Titans in the fifth). Whyle probably should have put up better numbers given the competition he was against, and while his height/weight/speed measurables are quite impressive, he seems to need some more time to develop. The most intriguing “what if” is probably Davis Allen, who is the least athletic of the bunch. Allen is a jump ball and contested catch maven—which could pair nicely with Kittle as a second tight end—and has some blocking potential. Equally as important (for this theoretical exercise), he went at the end of the fifth round. So we would have had a shot at him later. Latu seems like he has higher potential than Allen and is a bit safer and more pro-ready than Kuntz and Whyle, but—again—we’re comparing him to three dudes who were drafted in the fifth round or later. And that’s not including the guys we didn’t pick at other positions—Kelee Ringo, Blake Freeland of BYU—who went early in the fourth. Like with Moody, there’s a chance that missing a fourth rounder in this draft made us pick Latu earlier than we needed to.

Hopefully, Latu is ready to play early, because while he won’t be asked to be a full-time starter anytime soon, we’ve been looking for years for a guy who can play genuine snaps as a blocker and receiver to give George Kittle—who turns 30 this off-season—a breather. Woerner and Kroft were always more blockers. Ross Dwelley was more of a receiver/h-back. In Latu, we have someone who can theoretically handle both. In addition to prolonging Kittle’s career by giving him valuable snaps off, Latu will hopefully make for a nice weapon in double-tight formations in the red zone. 

CB, Darrell Luter Jr., South Alabama (Round 5, Pick 155)

Darrell Luter greatly resembles the cadre of other cornerbacks who we’ve taken in the 5th round over the years. DJ Reed (2018), Deommodore Lenoir (2021), Samuel Womack (2022) were all—like Luter—outside corners in college who were undersized in some way, who the Niners believed could find a place in the nickel or—if they proved they could overcome their size limitations—outside. 

Like Womack last year, Luter is speedy and long (his wingspan is greater than Richard Sherman’s), but could stand to add a little bulk and will face a sizable jump in competition after coming from a Group of 5 school. Luter is one of those guys who really fits our scheme, as he’s much better playing press and using his length to jam receivers at the LOS than he is sitting back in off-man. He’s got the speed and fluidity to excel at both, but he’s savvier through the route and at the catch point when he can body up with guys down the field. With 22 pass deflections and 5 picks over the past two years, his ball skills are solid, and he’s willing to mix it up as a tackler as well (even if adding some weight might help in that regard).

If we assume Isaiah Oliver gets the first shot to take over in the nickel, then Luter should slot in with the cluster of young cornerbacks who we’ve been cross-training both outside and in. That group includes Womack, Ambry Thomas (2021), and Qwuantrezz Knight (2022). I wouldn’t expect him to break through this year, but—given none of those three names he’s in competing with have established themselves as consistent contributors—the competition should be wide open for sub package snaps and next man up duties. Given Brown has some nickel capabilities and we’re likely to keep four safeties, there’s probably only space for five corners on our active roster. With three of those spots (Charvarius Ward, Lenoir, Oliver) seemingly accounted for, we’re looking at 3 or 4 dudes competing for two remaining spots and at least one pick from the past few drafts getting demoted to the practice squad or cut.

DE, Robert Beal Jr., Georgia (Round 5, Pick 173)

If you have any questions as to why Georgia is coming off back-to-back national championships, the fact that we’re drafting a guy in the fifth round who was only able to start ten games for them over the past two years is a good indicator. Beal was a stand-up OL in Georgia’s 3-4 scheme but played plenty as a rolled-down edge on passing downs. Despite being a high four-star recruit out of high school, he never cracked the full-time starting lineup, but it’s clear to see why he was recruited so highly. This dude has jets.

At 6’3 247 pounds, Beal ran a 4.44 at the combine (his fellow Georgia LB and pass rusher Nolan Smith ran a 4.39) and excels firing off the line, blowing past tackles with speed, and running the arc towards the quarterback. Despite having only ten starts over the past two years, Beal racked up 9.5 sacks during that time (more than Smith ever had) and drips with potential. And it’s not like he wasn’t productive. His 6.5 sacks in 2021 actually led Georgia’s team, despite sharing the field with first-round draft picks Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Devonta Wyatt, and Travon Walker—the #1 overall pick last year.

But the lack of starts points to expected issues and weaknesses. Beal doesn’t really have much of a pass rush plan or sequence of moves if he can’t beat his blocker immediately, and his recognition and technical skills could use some work. There are also some character flags that are at least worth mentioning. Beal planned to enroll early at Georgia but his multiple high school transfers scuttled those plans and—once he enrolled in school—he had to redshirt his first year due to being academically ineligible. He was also arrested on a misdemeanor charge in April of 2019, but it was for marijuana possession so… kinda who cares? Nothing major, but it’s worth mentioning when the rest of this class is filled with multi-year team captains.

Beal is another great scheme fit because the Niners have been looking for a genuine speed rusher opposite Bosa to at least moonlight in some Turbo sets ever since Dee Ford’s back rendered him perennially on the IR. Beal immediately becomes our most explosive edge rusher, and while Drake Jackson and Clelin Ferrell should get the majority of the edge snaps opposite Bosa, the hope is Beal can get some run on pure passing downs. 

Long-term, we’d love if Beal could follow a similar career path as Josh Uche of the Patriots. Uche was an edge rusher specialist at Michigan who had to rotate out more than fans would have liked due to schematic fit and personnel issues around him. After getting picked in the second round by the Pats in 2020, his playing time slowly accumulated before he broke out with 11.5 sacks last season (despite starting zero games). 

We have three defensive ends (Kerry Hyder, Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant) up for free agency next year (I’m not counting Bosa because there is no chance he gets to free agency), and while we’ve had a lot of success with our one-year rentals and veteran reclamation projects, the Niners also want to be able to build dudes up from within the program who can contribute for more than a season at a time. Additionally, we need juice on the edge, and juice is hard to find this late in the draft, so it’s not hard to see why we picked up Beal. While he’s very much a work-in-progress, if there’s a place where he can maximize his talent it’s in the wide 9 while playing under Kris Kocurek and Darryl Tapp.

LB, Dee Winters, TCU (Round 6, Pick 216)

Due to his position (off-ball linebacker) and smaller size (5’10 227 pounds) Winters slipped lower than most would have expected in the draft. He doesn’t have the size or bulk to regularly fight in phone booths and his stack-and-shed ability will likely never be great given those limitations. That said, Winters is a versatile, high-energy player who can run, hit, and make splash plays.

A senior captain who started every game for TCU over the past three seasons, Winters is a high-effort dude with good speed (4.49 forty) who is tough at the point of attack and is an excellent blitzer from the linebacker position (7.5 sacks last year). Our scheme relies heavily on linebackers with range who can play in space, and while Winters is a bit more stiff-hipped and less explosive than the dynamic duo we currently employ, it’s not hard to see how he could carve out a sub package role in our scheme by continuing to improve his read and react speed.

Since he isn’t an S-tier athlete, Winters’ lack of size may put a cap on his ceiling as a pro, but given how many former safeties we’ve shaped into linebackers, I wouldn’t count him out as a long-term regular contributor on defense. In the meantime, he should make an immediate splash on special teams, as he was a regular on TCU’s coverage teams and his speed at the linebacker position should make him a shoe-in for one of the gunner spots.

H-Back, Brayden Willis, Oklahoma (Round 7, Pick 247)

While listed as a tight end on draft boards, Willis is totally the heir apparent to Juice at fullback. Playing fullback, tight end, and wildcat QB, Willis had ten carries this year, threw a 24-yard touchdown, and led the Sooners in receiving with 514 yards and 7 touchdowns. While the idea of a tight end/fullback leading Oklahoma in receiving with 500 yards makes you wonder what year we’re in, Willis is a true do-it-all fullback.

He’s an excellent blocker, including on seal blocks—which should endear him quickly to Shanahan and Bobby Turner—and he should quickly pick up the gun run and wing blocking stuff we love to deploy given what he was asked to do in college. Coaches rave about his work ethic and leadership abilities. And while he’s no supreme athlete, he’s a nice route runner and natural hands catcher, lining up often in the slot but even catching the occasional goal line fade while at Oklahoma. This is the schematic fit to end all schematic fits. 

Now remember, this is a backup fullback we just drafted. Heir apparent or not, even Juice—the best fullback in the game—only sees the field for about half of our offensive snaps, so Willis will need to find a way to stick on the active roster until it’s his time to shine. There’s a world where we roster four tight ends and both rookies make the active roster, and Willis could attempt to carve out a role as a Ross Dwelley replacement in year one, but that’s a lot to ask of a seventh-round rookie. Unsurprisingly, Willis’ best path to avoiding practice squad relegation (and potential poaching given how many Shanny disciples there are running around the league now), is via special teams, where he logged 845 career snaps in college. Most importantly, if he were to make the active team this year, we could have the absolutely ludicrous distinction of being the only team in the NFL with TWO fullbacks on their 53-man roster. 

WR, Ronnie Bell, Michigan (Round 7, Pick 253)

A five-year college player, two-year captain, and highly respected team leader in Ann Arbor (he was a player-coach in 2021 after blowing out his ACL in the first game of the season), Bell came back for his victory lap and set career highs in nearly every receiving category last season while leading Michigan in receiving for the third time in the past four seasons. 

He’ll block in the run game (he played for Jim Harbaugh after all), is slippery and smooth as a route runner, and—if you squint—you can see shades of a smaller Kendrick Bourne in his game. Bell doesn’t excel at any one thing—he’s not going to run away from anyone deep and he lacks ideal size and strength—and he’ll need to get better in tighter spaces and tighter windows, but his approach and savvy could let him carve out a role as a reliable first- and second-level receiver after some development.

While Danny Gray was a third-round pick last year, our fifth receiver position is largely up for grabs heading into OTAs and training camp. We’d love for Gray to seize the reins given his raw, unadulterated speed, but don’t be shocked if Bell or another training camp participant pushes him for that final spot.

LB, Jalen Graham, Purdue (Round 7, Pick 255)

Our last pick of the draft, Jalen Graham was an intelligent and versatile team leader for the Boilermakers who was asked to do a lot while being surrounded by less-than-ideal talent. More of a SAM linebacker who is better when he can be playing forward against the run, Graham is probably the most curious fit of all the players we drafted. While he looks the part and is quick to diagnose and trigger downhill, Graham’s lack of play speed and fluidity in space doesn’t seem to matchup all that well with what we ask of our linebackers when it comes to coverage (even our SAM linebackers). That said, Graham’s got a special teams background, and—as stated ad nauseam—that could be his best shot at sticking on the roster.

UDFAs

The Niners almost always find contributors from their undrafted free agent signings. Below are UDFAs who started or made major contributions during the six ShanaLynch years.

2022: RB Jordan Mason
2021: none
2020: RB JaMychal Hasty, RB Salvon Ahmed (poached from PS and started 4 games as a rookie), LB Jonas Griffith (traded due to lack of roster space to Broncos, starting 12 games over past 4 games there).
2019: LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Kevin Givens, LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
2018: CB Emmanuel Moseley, RB Jeff Wilson, TE Ross Dwelley
2017: RB Matt Breida, WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Nick Mullens

It’s obviously harder now to make an imprint with the current quality of our team, but that’s enough of a track record to where it’s worth mentioning anyone who got the call for our 90-man off-season roster.

While our lack of offensive linemen selected as a major vote of confidence for Colton McKivitz (and, I guess, Jaylon Moore as well), we scooped up a bunch of dudes on the OL after the draft. 

The headliner is Joey Fisher (Shepherd). He’s older (26) because he took three years off from football to work as a locksmith(!) with his dad before Shepherd gave him a shot. He returned the favor by starting three years (would have been four if they hadn’t canceled football during COVID) and being named a two-time D2 All-American. Shepherd absolutely has the size, body, power, and mentality to be an NFL lineman. The jump up in competition will be massive and they’ll have to figure out if he’s a guard or a tackle, but this is a high-upside pick who most thought would get his name called midway through Saturday. Fellow OL Corey Luciano (Washington) and Ilm Manning (Hawaii) will likely be interior guys, even if Manning started 60 games over 5 years at left tackle for the Rainbow Warriors. 

Unable to draft one in the third round, the Niners added two running backs: Ronald Awatt (UTEP) and Khalan Laborn (Marshall). Laborn was a five-star recruit at Florida State who blew out his knee, played a bit, got kicked off the team, finished his bachelor’s degree as a student, then played one year at Marshall to deplete his eligibility. In that one year he rushed for 1513 yards and 16 TDs on 5.0 ypc (including 163 on five yards a pop at Notre Dame). Despite drafting Brayden Wilis, we did our annual duty and added another fullback to the 90-man, picking up Jack Colletto (Oregon State), who was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection as an all-purpose player in 2022 while winning the Paul Hornung Award for college football’s most versatile player. Colletto arrived in Corvallis as a QB, then played linebacker, before moving over to short-yardage running back. He’s probably the only player in college football with 50+ career passing attempts, rushing attempts, and tackles, and at the Senior Bowl he practiced on both offense (FB) and defense (LB), switching jerseys between practice periods.

Elsewhere on offense, we added receivers Shae Wyatt (Tulane) and Jadakis Bonds (Hampton), who—at 6’3 and 206 pounds—racked up 34 receiving touchdowns over four years with the Pirates. 

On the defensive side, we picked up former Trey Lance teammate and two-time All-American defensive end Spencer Waege (North Dakota St.). He missed the last 12 games of 2021 with a torn ACL but came back this year to set career highs in sacks and TFLs while being named a first-team All-American. After playing at 265 he bulked up to 295 for the draft, so we’re crossing our fingers he can do a poor man’s Armstead impersonation.

Finally, we added linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin (Minnesota) and defensive backs Avery Young (Rutgers) and D’Shawn Jamison (Texas). Starting 40 games (and playing in 60) over five years, Jamison has strong athletic traits and stickiness in coverage, but is overall lacking in size and strength. He could wind up a developmental nickel, and—once again—it doesn’t help that he has extensive special teams experience, both as a return man (2 kicks and 1 punt returned for touchdowns in his career) and on coverage units (blocked a punt last year). 

I’m sure there will be other names added as the days pass (we’re expected to add a fourth QB at some point), but that’s all as of now, and this write-up is already hilariously long. Congratulations to all the young men who we’ve brought into the fold and best of luck to them!

Go Niners! 👍🏈

Off-Season Preview: OL

The #1 way that 2022 could have gone sideways was if our new-look interior line hadn’t been up to the task. Luckily, our three new starters played about as well as we could have asked for, and—just as importantly—our OL was mostly healthy throughout the year. This helped power an offense that rushed for the seventh-most yards in the league and allowed the sixth-fewest sacks. However, our OL wasn’t the mauling run blocking unit of years past and we definitely got heated up a bit in our last two matchups—even if those games were against the two best pass rushes in football. So while we were all pleasantly surprised by our OL’s performance last year, improvements are still needed.

Offensive Tackle

UFA: Mike McGlinchey
RFA/ERFA: Colton McKivitz (RFA)

Trent Williams continues to be the best offensive tackle in football, and it is not particularly close. According to PFF, he was once again the top-rated tackle, tops in run blocking, and fifth in pass pro. While his overall rating dipped from his 2021 level of “this is the best rating anyone has ever gotten at any position” to just plain “this is the best tackle in the world right now,” we have been and continue to be thrilled to have Williams rag-dolling grown men on our blindside. 

Although there’s been rumors of a flirtation with retirement bouncing about the internet, it doesn’t seem like something Williams is genuinely contemplating at the moment, and—on the flip side—there’s a decent chance the Niners actually approach Williams about a contract restructuring to free up more cash in the present. 2023 marks the last of the guaranteed money on Williams’ contract, so if he’s confident he wants to play for a few more years, a re-structuring could make sense for both parties and open up quite a bit of cap space. 

Opposite Williams, the much-maligned Mike McGlinchey put together a solid-but-unspectacular season. He’ll always be a better run blocker than pass protector, but he’s put in a lot of work over the past years to limit the big whiffs in pass pro that much of the fanbase has known him for. He is, for all intents and purposes, an above-average-to-good right tackle who is narrowly on the right side of 30, and that means he’ll certainly have suitors on the open market. According to Spotrac, McGlinchey’s market value is an estimated $14.8M/year and that seems relatively accurate (if not on the low side). McGlinchey has been vocal about his interest in returning to the bay, where both his fiancee and many of his friends are from, but there’s a very real world where we get priced out of retaining his services. In the simplest of terms, we can definitely do worse than McGlinchey, and—unless one of our internal candidates or a mid-to-late round draft pick surpasses expectations—we won’t be able to do better without shelling out loads of cap space. So what’s the plan?

I’d say it’s a hair less than 50/50 we re-sign McGlinchey, with the team wanting him back but his price tag rising out of our range, but—first thing’s first—we’re going to re-sign Colton McKivitz. While he lost his spot as the team’s top backup tackle early in the year, there was some talk that was due to injury, and he played well in limited snaps this season. The second clubhouse leader to replace McGlinchey would be soon-to-be-third-year player Jaylon Moore, who started two games in place of Trent Williams last season and provides considerably more athletic upside at the position. Neither are slam dunk replacements as a full-time right tackle, but there’s absolutely a world where the Niners roll with that duo—hoping that two of them (plus any incoming rookies) could net a serviceable starter and a flexible backup or two behind him. 

If the Niners do plan to dip into the free agent market, there’s a number of different directions they could go:

NOTE: I’ll be referencing PFF’s scores in these write-ups because I am no OL expert, and a number of these teams I just don’t watch. I’m well aware that it’s not a perfect metric, but it is one of the only available statistical measures for linemen. So… better than nothing.

Kaleb McGary, Atlanta: A former first-round draft pick who was considered enough of a disappointment that Atlanta didn’t exercise his fifth-year option, McGary responded by posting a career year that saw him ranked as PFF’s fourth-best offensive tackle with a run blocking mark second only to our own Trent Williams. He’s a mauler in the run game with more power than lateral quickness, and that shows in his pass pro scores. While he vastly improved in that regard last year, his career-high 2022 marks in the passing game check in as a tick below McGlinchey’s career averages, and there’s always some worry that his play fit so well in Atlanta’s run-heavy scheme that he may be even more susceptible to pass rushers outside of it. We’d basically be swinging on a McGlinchey type with greater variance, and while McGary will likely command a lesser contract than our right tackle incumbent, given the market, I’m not sure the price difference between the two will be enough for us to warrant the move.  

Jermaine Eluemunor, Las Vegas: A London transplant who was late to football, Eluemunor entered the league as a raw prospect in 2017 (only 12 starts in college). After being a swing tackle across three different teams in his first five years in the league, he was finally given the reins at right tackle and posted a career year in 2022. He’s a big boy, but he moves well and has posted four straight years with pass pro scores above 70.0 (for reference, McGlinchey has eclipsed that mark only twice in his career). Like McGary above, it’s always worth taking a closer look when someone has a contract year bump. When that player has been in the league for a while, it’s another red flag that could point to timely variance rather than projected improvement. That said, Eluemunor’s raw status when he entered the league and his lack of starting opportunities until last season may actually help the likelihood that he’s on the upswing rather than peaking before a big contract. Perhaps it just took him a while to put it all together, and there’s a world where his price tag may be closer to that of a backup but with starter-level production.

Cameron Fleming, Denver: Another long-time journeyman swing tackle who played well when finally given a starting opportunity, Fleming has quietly put together two solid seasons in Denver. He doesn’t exactly excel at any one thing, and he’ll turn 31 just before next season starts, but he may be able to be had at a price tag more comparable to  a swing tackle competing for a starting job than a full-on starter. And at worst, he’d be a solid backup if he gets beat out. 

Andre Dillard, Philadelphia: Another former first-round pick, Dillard—due to opting out the COVID year—has only played three seasons in the NFL, and—due to the emergence of Jordan Mailata at left tackle—he’s never gotten the chance to really assert his ability (starting only 9 games over those three years). Coming out of Wazzu, the knock on him was his power in the run game, and that’s shown true in his grades. So it’s not hard to understand how he may have struggled to crack the rotation of one of the run-heaviest teams in the country. But Dillard’s primary weakness seems to be opportunity. He’s played well when he’s seen the field the past two seasons and is a plus plus athlete with an ideal tackle frame and feet. While he missed a big chunk of this year with a forearm injury and only played 37 snaps in 2022 (all of them at guard), there’s still a lot of potential in his game at (potentially) a very friendly price tag. 

While the Niners are still benefitting from rookie QB contracts, the big deals they dole out this off-season must take into account what our cap will look like two and three years for now. So it begs the question: how much are we willing to pay for good-but-not-great right tackle play? 

It’s tough to say “let’s take a step back” at the position given our struggles in pass pro against the Cowboys and the Eagles in the playoffs, this could be a situation where a spiking salary cap and a weak tackle market puts McGlinchey out of our range. 

Offensive Guard

UFA: none 
RFA/ERFA: none

Aaron Banks (of “five offensive snaps played as a rookie” fame) stepped into the starting lineup and basically held it down at left guard. Considering the player he replaced, that’s pretty impressive. Now, I wouldn’t say Banks blew me away in any facet of play, but given the consternation Niners fans had in his ability after such a quiet rookie season, boring is nothing to scoff at. 

On the right side, fourth-round rookie Spencer Burford rotated series with all-purpose swing man Daniel Brunskill. As a guy who played a lot of tackle in college and was considered somewhere between the two positions, Burford’s movement skills made him playable immediately, but his lack of experience, power, and polish led the coaching staff to rotating him with Brunskill so that the rookie could see how a seasoned vet approached things while simultaneously getting reps. It worked as well as anyone could have expected and hopefully sets up Burford for an impressive second-year leap. 

Realistically, it’s the second-year development (or in Banks’ case “second-year” development) that gives us the most hope for improvement along the offensive line. While Banks and Burford combined to allow only six sacks on the season, they were far from anchors in pass pro, and if boring is fine for year one as a starter, year two is when you want to see stronger play and specific traits that each player excels at. Due to both players’ age, their physical skill set, and the way the line got increasingly better and more cohesive as the year went on, there’s every reason to believe there’s a next step (or two) for each of our young starting guards. The big question is how big a step that will be and if both will be able to take it this off-season. 

I’d be remiss not to give a shout-out to Daniel Brunskill once again, who—no matter what we ask of him—always seems to be prepared for it. While Burford is expected to become the full-time starter at right guard next year, I’d assume the Niners bring back Brunskill. Both because I don’t think he’ll be particularly expensive and because he provides insurance at all five positions along the offensive line.

Elsewhere on the roster, rookie Nick Zakelj played mostly tackle last year but could kick inside to guard if needed. Although if we’re needing that next year, we’re probably in trouble. Also, blog favorite Jason Poe—last season’s scout team OL of the year—waits in the wings. While his height is lacking, his burst and overall ability is hugely intriguing. He could be a guard or a center, but if he can fight his way into a second-team position at either spot next year, that bodes very well for his future prospects.

Center

UFA: Jake Brendel
RFA/ERFA: none

Despite being thirty years old and on the roster for the past three seasons, Brendel had only played six snaps since he arrived in Santa Clara and was as much of a question mark as our two guards entering 2022. But Brendel acquitted himself nicely, holding the unit together, communicating effectively, and putting up the 7th-highest pass blocking rate of any center this past season. Like the guards, there was nothing in particular that he really excelled at, but he was solid and consistent throughout the year. The major difference between Brendel and the guards? Brendel is thirty years old and currently an unrestricted free agent.

Shanahan has always prioritized the importance of center play, and it’s tough to imagine him dumping a successful center after basically stashing him on the roster for three years without playing him. But the market complicates matters a little bit. Center is a position with few elite players and a fat middle class, meaning you could make the argument to go for a younger player with higher upside or you could say it’s not worth rocking the boat unless you’ve got a guy with top-5 ability in your sights. 

If Brendel departs and we add someone in free agency, there are a few options:

Ethan Pocic, Cleveland: Pocic was mid-at-best for the first four years of his career, finally started putting things together in year five in Seattle, then signed a one-year deal with the Browns last off-season and put up his best season by far. According to PFF, he was the league’s third-best center and fifth-best run-blocker. It’s worth noting that Pocic played under the tutelage of Bill Callahan—one of the best OL coaches in the league—and between two of the highest-paid guards in the NFL in Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio, so there’s a world where he’s no longer a top five center in another environment, but—at 27 years old—he will almost certainly be the most sought after center this off-season.  

Connor McGovern, NY Jets: McGovern has a strong track record over multiple years—putting up three top-10 positional rankings over the past four seasons—and the past two years have come running the same scheme that we do. McGovern turns 30 before next season, so we wouldn’t be getting more than a few months younger at the position, but he’s an option nonetheless.

Garrett Bradbury, Minnesota: A former first-rounder who also has familiarity within the greater Shanahan system, Bradbury was mid-at-best through his rookie contract before seeing an uptick in play in his first season in Kevin O’Connell’s re-tooled offense. Bradbury was drafted so highly largely because he was a converted tight end, so his athleticism and movement skills are elite across the board, but—through his four years in the league—he’s lacked the size and strength to anchor in pass protection. Despite the tantalizing athletic upside, those pass pro issues may just be the case for the rest of his career. 

My best guess is that the market for Brendel isn’t particularly ripe, the Niners prioritize continuity, and he gets re-signed. Something like a two- or three-year deal without a ton of guarantees that we can get out of after a year without punishment. But I do think the Niners try and figure out the development of his heir incumbent this year, whether that’s Poe or someone that they draft this spring. 

If I were the betting type, I’d say the only big ticket contract we may hand out is a multi-year deal to Mike McGlinchey, or—potentially—his replacement. Regardless, I’d expect the Niners to use at least one of their mid-round picks on the offensive line, but that could mean anything from a contender at right tackle, an up-and-coming center, an all-purpose swing, or some combination of the above. While improvement along our offensive line is the priority, our best shot at that given our draft and cap situation is through the continued development of our interior players. 

Go Niners 👍🏈

Off-Season Preview: WRs/TEs

In previous years, someone—typically Deebo or Kittle—would absolutely dominate touches in the passing game (or in Deebo’s case, the passing and running game). While that was great for fantasy owners and it let our guys soak in some much-earned nationwide appreciation, those outrageous target shares were largely the product of a passing attack that was—whether it was due to health, development, or roster construction—short on weapons. Things changed dramatically last season, and 2022 marked the most balanced the Niners’ receiving corps has ever been.

With the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk into a 1,000-yard receiver, the addition of CMC, and (relatively) healthy seasons from both Deebo and Kittle, the Niners spread the love in the passing game more so than they ever have under Shanahan. The result was the most efficient and effective passing offense in the ShanaLynch era. 

With all the big names under contract, our receiving room has very much earned an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” type of approach to this off-season. But the continued growth of our receiving unit in the coming year will have ripple effects on the salary cap decisions we’ll need to make in the next two or three.

Wide Receivers

UFAs: none
RFAs/ERFAs: Jauan Jennings (ERFA)

It’s doubtful there will be any legitimate movement at wideout as all of the team’s receivers are signed for 2023 except for Jennings, who is—as our top slot receiver who we’d only need to offer the veteran minimum—as easy a tender decision as there ever was. The only way the Niners don’t offer him one immediately is if they’re trying to lock him up on a multi-year deal instead. 

Any movement of note will likely happen on the back end of the roster, as the Niners would like to go through the off-season with at least twice the number of wideouts that they currently have. Practice squad holdover and special teamer Tay Martin will certainly be a part of team activities as we move into spring and summer. So will two guys who just inked futures deals with the Niners: Dazz Newsome—a second-year slot/return man with enough YAC upside to make sense as a special teamer/gadget project—and Tyron Johnson—a former five-star wideout with deep ball potential who was thrown onto the field for 12 games as a rookie in 2020 but has bounced between three teams in the two years since. Of those three, Martin seems like the most likely to stick—even if it’s just for special teams purposes—and any additional contributors will either come from free agent discount deals or the draft. Predicting the free agent movements of players vying for a sixth or seventh wideout spot is a bit of a fool’s errand, and we’ll discuss the draft closer to the event. So the emphasis for the Niners turns mostly towards continued development from within.

The Niners will almost certainly exercise Aiyuk’s fifth-year option this spring, giving them another year to wait on making a decision on a potential extension past his rookie deal. This could prove important because—while our cap situation is decently chill this off-season—it’s hard to envision a world where we can afford to keep Aiyuk, Kittle, Deebo, and CMC a year or two down the road. Due to that, 2023 will be a big year for evaluating how all our offensive pieces fit together, and how we plan to jigsaw them together for the next half-decade. 

While Aiyuk made huge strides in his third year in the offense, we’d love to see him add “deep ball threat” to his resume. I know that he’s been hurt more than most by the fact that we don’t huck it down the field often, but if he can truly stretch the field with regularity, we may be able to unlock yet another level of passing game efficiency.

For Deebo, his 864 yards and five scores from scrimmage were less than half of the yards and TDs he put up a year ago. Part of that was due to him missing four games due to injury. Part was the product of a much more balanced passing and rushing attack that didn’t have to force-feed him the ball. But there’s still room for improvement and reason to believe he’ll do just that.

Last year, Deebo spent the off-season away from the team as his agent negotiated a multi-year extension. This year, he’ll be in the building and participating in team activities throughout the spring and summer, which means valuable reps with Lance and (whenever he returns) Purdy—two guys who we took very few snaps beside in the lead-up to last season. All those distractions and hold-ups are now gone. So Deebo will be more free to attack self-improvement.

Many of the better defenses that we faced tried to eliminate Deebo by draping cornerbacks all over him—knowing that press man coverage would allow them extra numbers against the run, would make it easier to deny passes because of how often he runs short-to-intermediate routes, and would put defenders in easier tackling position if he got the ball. While it’s not super likely that Deebo ever becomes a deep ball maven, if he can improve against tight man coverage (and shore up the occasional drop) then we won’t have to lean as heavily on Aiyuk when teams show us Cover 1. That would help us tremendously in 2023 and would certainly factor into future roster decisions regarding both Aiyuk and Samuel.

In the slot, we have two unique different body types and skill sets. Ray-Ray McCloud isn’t often mentioned when talking about our horde of Swiss Army Knife offensive weapons, but he played both receiver and running back in college, and the hope is he’ll be more comfortable in year two in Shanahan’s scheme. We saw higher usage from him down the stretch—in part because Deebo was missing—and his running ability and big-play speed were on display on his 71-yard touchdown run against the Commanders. While our run-heavy nature means he’s unlikely to get massive snaps offensively, there’s hope that he can be deployed more efficiently and given more situations where his speed, shiftiness, and open-field running ability can be put on display.

Part of the reason Ray-Ray’s production won’t be coming from a massive increase in snaps is that our current starting slot receiver—and the biggest wideout we have on roster—has fully solidified himself as a starter over the past year and a half. Jauan Jennings isn’t a tremendous athlete, but he has carved out quite the niche as basically a slot fullback and offensive antagonizer who runs the occasional crosser and makes the (not-so-occasional) clutch third-down grab. While his ceiling may not be astronomical, his personality and play-style mesh perfectly with the Niners’ commitment to the run game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Niners re-up him on an under-market multi-year deal in hopes that he becomes a bigger, beefier Kendrick Bourne down the road. Jennings will never have the wiggle or smooth athleticism of KB, but he can make up for that with size and brawn if he continues to develop at his current rate.

Finally, last year’s third-rounder Danny Gray was basically a healthy scratch in 2022. While the idea of him blazing past corners and catching deep balls down the sideline was an off-season dream, Gray was always super raw, and when Lance went down, so too did much of Gray’s intended use as a rookie. That said, I’m not worried about his long-term projection. While it’s always a lot cooler when a rookie produces immediately, part of Gray’s appeal was in how raw he was and how—with his incredible speed and athleticism—there was a chance we locked up a bargain as long as we were patient. That said, we need Gray to advance enough this year to be confident that he could play decent snaps in 2024 because—as discussed above—we may need to make some tough decisions at that point.

Tight Ends

UFAs: Tyler Kroft, Ross Dwelley
RFAs/ERFAs: none

Every year our brass discusses bringing in a second tight end to take some of the load off of George Kittle, and—every year—we don’t quite accomplish that goal. It’s tough because Kittle is so valuable both as a blocker and as a receiver, but—with back-to-back snap count percentages in the nineties—getting Kittle off the field more could help preserve his body in both the short- and long-term. Additionally, having a second tight end who can catch the ball (or ideally catch and block) well opens up a lot of value in our 12 personnel play action sets.

While a double tight play action set was the set-up of the play where Purdy got hurt, we—and the Chiefs the game after—liked the double tight play action looks against the Eagles because—like many defenses these days—they have minimized their investment in linebackers and overall size in an attempt to go faster and defend the pass. While you can’t live in double tight personnel, having two reliable receivers at tight end can force defenses to play two-to-three linebackers when they’d prefer to be playing one-to-two. In essence, bolstering our double tight personnel would let us run the ball better from another look and hunt matchups more within another personnel grouping—the two things we like doing most as an offense.

But again, we can’t live in 12 personnel, nor should we be throwing fat stacks down on a second tight end. But while I think we’re past the point of spending legit money on a big-name free agent (remember when we were linked to Austin Hooper coming off a 75-catch season?), I wouldn’t be shocked to see us kick the tires on a lower-cost veteran (perhaps Austin Hooper, three years later, coming off a 41-catch season?) or add a rookie in the middle rounds of the draft.

If we don’t add another body, either Kroft or Dwelley (or both) could return in 2023, but I doubt there will be a mad rush to sign either until closer to training camp. We also still have Charlie Woerner, who—after a promising second season—saw his play and his snap count plummet in the back half of last year. Not sure what happened there, but a return to his 2021 form would—at the very least—assure us of a quality backup in case of injury and give us a bit more wiggle room to swing on an unfinished product in the draft. 

Either way, I’d expect a new body in the tight end room come training camp.

Go Niners 👍🏈

Off-Season Preview: Backfield

I was waiting to write-up something on our new-look coaching staff, but since the dust has yet to settle and multiple decisions (and promotions?) have yet to be made, we’ll jump ahead to the positional previews. With these previews, we’re looking for potential needs and turnover by position group before throwing in some educated guesses as to how those changes may shake out.

Up first is the offensive backfield, which has—for better or worse—never been boring during Shanahan’s five years leading the Niners. Much of that has been due to injuries and the long-term question marks that have stemmed from said injuries. And this year, it’s… same same but different. 

RUNNING BACK

UFAs: None
RFAs/ERFAs: None

A quick refresher on the types of free agents that exist in the NFL. The Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) are the guys who you typically think of when you think of free agents. Their contracts are up and they’re fully on the open market. Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) are players with three accrued seasons in the NFL. We basically have the right of first refusal with any of these players as we can tender them at one of a variety of compensation levels and—depending on what tender level we choose—we get to match any outside offer and (in most cases) get a set amount of draft compensation in return if we fail to do so. Finally, there are Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs), also known as “definitely not free agents but we call them that.” These players have less than three accrued seasons in the NFL, their tender is for the CBA minimum, and once they’re offered a tender they can’t negotiate with any other teams.

Let’s start with the easiest position group first. All four of our top running backs (and Juice) are under contract for 2023. All four (and Juice) will return. 

Despite losing his starting job to Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell is a vital part of our offense and (hopefully) one we can keep healthy next year. He’s arguably a better pure runner, seemingly always explodes through the right hole, and has the most burst of anyone in our backfield. Behind him, the rookies Jordan Mason and Ty Davis-Price will vie for touches, and—since this is a Shanahan offense—it wouldn’t be surprising to see either perform well if given the chance. Mitchell, Ty Davis-Price, and Mason will combine for just over a $3M cap hit.

The only real question with this group is when the Niners restructure CMC’s contract and what that will look like. While McCaffrey isn’t a free agent until 2026 he has ZERO guaranteed money left on his deal and will almost certainly want to restructure a new deal that locks in some cash on his side and opens up cap room on ours.

QUARTERBACK

UFAs: Jimmy Garoppolo
RFAs/ERFAs: None

The Niners enter the off-season with two quarterbacks on roster: Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. According to much of the national discourse, this is apparently a catastrophic situation for a team so talented and ready to contend. But it actually seems pretty simple to me.

Lance should be cleared to go within weeks while Purdy, who will undergo an internal brace surgery on his torn UCL, is expected to be out six months before he can return. That means Lance will run the offense through the off-season and—depending on the timing and progress of Purdy’s rehab—into training camp. The coaching staff won’t need to make any kind of decision on who the starter is until Purdy returns to full health, and—I can assure you—they won’t. Nor should they. 

While Purdy’s intelligence and gamesmanship were incredibly impressive as a rookie, he’s still an undersized player coming off a major throwing arm injury and teams will have a better plan to attack his tendencies in 2023. While I’m bullish on his ability to continue to get smarter and better, the hope was that he’d be able to spend the off-season doing just that and adding a few more MPHs on his fastball. Now, he loses an entire off-season of reps, and the idea of him improving physically in year two—either in arm strength or overall bulk—is likely out the window. Granted, Purdy was a perfect 8-0 in games that he finished, so he can clearly play at this level (physical limitations and all), but this was far from the off-season we’d hoped for as we prepared for Purdy’s sophomore encore.

At the same time, Trey Lance needs as many reps as physically possible, and—while practice reps are nothing like regular season ones—having another off-season as the man leading our offense should only improve his consistency and understanding of the game. I don’t really understand the push to “move on from Lance.” Even though he’s now one year older, he’s still younger than Purdy, would be the youngest starting QB in the league—save for a few potential rookie starters—and is still one of the greatest balls of physical potential in the game. There’s quite simply not enough info for us to know what we have in Lance, and—while the ticking clock of the rookie contract is ever-present—moving on from him without the knowledge of what he can become in this system and at the nadir of his market value makes little sense on every level. It’s not all that hard to imagine Lance—with a few more reps—having a Jalen Hurts-esque emergence with more time as a starter, and I’m sure that before this season the Niners were hoping he’d be well on that track by now.

While I think Purdy’s undefeated string to end the season means it’s his job to lose, it is impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster. And it is absolutely impossible to have too many starting quarterbacks on your roster who are on rookie contracts. As stated before, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy will combine to make just over $10M against the cap next year, a figure which is less than Mitch Trubisky’s 2023 cap hit and four to five times less than the hits of the top ten highest paid quarterbacks in the league. That’s also a number that’s sure to increase given the new deals likely coming for Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa(?), etc. in the coming months. The single greatest advantage you can have from a roster-building perspective is a truly elite quarterback. The second-greatest advantage is having a starter on a rookie contract. We have two. And while that advantage doesn’t exactly stack, there’s no one who appreciates the value of a backup quarterback better than us. After all, we’ve had to start a backup in five of six seasons under Shanahan. 

That said, we will need a third quarterback and—given our injury history at the position and the fact that Purdy is out for so long—that guy should be a low-cost veteran who can play in a pinch. So what are our options?

For the purposes of this list, I’m scratching off anyone guaranteed to get starter money on the free market. So no Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, etc.

The definition of insanity…

Jimmy Garoppolo: No. While we should all appreciate him for what he’s done for the squad over the years and how he handled the Trey Lance situation, the worst way to secure a position group from injury is to rely on the health of the guy who gets injured more so than anyone else. 

Shanahan has already vetoed any idea of Jimmy coming back, and—while the remark seemed blunt in the end-of-season press conference Shanahan definitely didn’t want to attend—I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s because Jimmy’s injury woes did us dirty one last time this post-season. Remember, when Jimmy went down we picked up Josh Johnson off the street as a backup, but we also added Jacob Eason to our practice squad. So why wasn’t Eason on the active roster for the NFC Championship game? My guess is because that would have meant we’d had to reserve four spots for the position. 

Since there was hope Jimmy G would be back in case of a deep playoff run, the Niners couldn’t keep him on IR, and IR decisions have to be finalized before the playoffs start. The Niners clearly thought that having Jimmy G as their third QB in the playoffs (or second, depending on how he rehabbed) was a better bet than bringing up Jacob Eason, a physically talented player but one who has only ten career pass attempts for a reason. This seemed reasonable at the time, especially since the large majority of teams only keep two quarterbacks on the active roster for any given game. Unfortunately for us, our quarterback injuries just hit different. 

Teddy Bridgewater: see: not signing someone who is outrageously injury prone.

Young Cast-Offs

Baker Mayfield: Laugh all you want, but I was super pro-Baker when he was free on waivers and we needed a backup for Purdy. However, the Rams swooped in first, and Baker played… fine. I would be absolutely shocked if he were to get a starting role or even a chance at competing for one unless a team brings in a raw rookie for him to battle with, but I’d assume he’s looking for something more than a third quarterback spot. And while it’s hard to evaluate what Baker is really like in a locker room, it’s hard to claim he’s a better film guy than the names on this list who have closer to ten years of experience in the league.

Sam D’Arnold: see: Baker Mayfield but with higher variance.

Drew Lock: I’ve honestly never hated the talent, and he’s still only 26, but—like the names above—he may be looking for a better path towards playing time than as our third-stringer, and he’s only been in the league a couple years.

Scrappy McScrappersons

Taylor Heinecke: He’s gritty, tough, and his teammates seem to love him, but he may not be the type of QB who would necessarily thrive in the Niners’ offense. His accuracy wavers. His turnovers come in waves. And while he wins, it’s rarely because he’s stringing together long drives via an efficient passing game. Pure on-field performance isn’t the only factor to consider in this acquisition, but there’s an argument he’s a better fit as a spot starter for a team than a clipboard guy leading film sessions. 

Jacoby Brissett: Like Heinecke, I think his career is still more in the “break glass in case of emergency” stage, and he may prefer another shot at a backup gig after starting 11 games last season. But I’ve always heard good things about his approach, and we could certainly do worse as a QB room tutor who we weren’t terrified of getting real snaps.

CJ Beathard/Nick Mullens/Nate Sudfeld: They’d know the playbook…

Cooper Rush: There was never a real QB controversy in Dallas (nor should there have been), but Rush did hold the team together and pilot them to a 4-1 record while Dak was out with injury last year. Now it is worth noting that he completed only 58% of his passes, never threw for over 235 yards, and fell to the Earth with a three-interception game in his final start against the Eagles, but, again, we’re looking for a third quarterback.

Old Heads

Tom Brady: He retired. Let’s not do this unless he starts waffling.

Andy Dalton: If we’re adding a veteran addition, we’re looking for a two-part role. First, the guy needs to be able to play in a pinch if (god fucking forbid) we need to play our third quarterback again. Second, they need to be good in the film room and with a clipboard because that’s the role we actually want them playing. Dalton makes sense on both levels, but more on the latter.

Matt Ryan: He’s a 37-year-old coming off the worst season of his career on a team in full rebuilding mode who isn’t even a free agent. And while that sentence may not get the people going, the likelihood of him getting a buyout from the Colts and saving Indy $17M seems highly likely. Ryan is remarkably durable, having started every game of the season in a dozen different years and—until he was benched last year—never fewer than 14 in a single season. More importantly, he’s won an MVP running Shanahan’s offense, and—while those days are long gone—he could be a great mentor for our two young signal callers. Finally—if he does get released—no part of his contract would count against our comp pick formula this off-season.

Case Keenum: A 34-year-old poor man’s Andy Dalton? Not the sexiest description but the price tag might be.

Whoever we add, I doubt we’ll be in a huge hurry to bring them in. This year’s quarterback market is flush with starter-ish types and there will likely be a bit of a wait-and-see approach from the second tier of QBs as they assess the market. Everyone’s going to want to take their shot at a No.1 or No.2 gig before resigning themselves to being a full-on clipboard quarterback—even on a team where those quarterbacks play more than anyone would like. But once the dust settles, I still think there will be plenty of viable options to help tutor Purdy and Lance.

Go Niners 👍🏈