Capital Gains and Championship Windows

More of this plz [Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group]

For the Niners, a Super Bowl runner-up strapped for cash whose main priority this off-season has been retaining its own players, the most exciting part of free agency is very likely over (unless Bill O’Brien wants to pick up the phone and swap DeShaun Watson for Matt Breida). But our moves, both big and small, have hinted at how the team’s brass plans to address our weaknesses and keep our championship window open as long as possible. 

Because in the glow of a massively successful season, it’s easy to forget how quickly those windows close. The Denver Broncos had four years of Peyton Manning before they fell into an abyss of very tall men pretending to be NFL quarterbacks. The Carolina Panthers had three years before their hybrid offense became too inefficient in the passing game and Cam too beat up in the running game. And the Seattle Seahawks, while still contender-adjacent, won only one Super Bowl despite having the cap space and young talent from selecting — over the course of three straight drafts — Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson (on a third round contract no less). 

Thus, the greatest optimism that comes from the DeForest Buckner trade is the fact that the Niners seem fully aware of that shrinking window. And they’re attempting to extend it with the most tried and true method — by being strict with your budget and increasing draft capital.

Entering the off-season, this was the Niners, in the far bottom-left quadrant of this draft capital x cap space chart.

This info will change a lot in the next ~48 hours, but here's where teams' offseason resources sit right now-ish.

Data is courtesy Tankathon and Over the Cap and uses @fbgchase's draft pick valuation model. pic.twitter.com/xTwKPwFa0n

— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) March 16, 2020

That was before the DeFo trade. And while we won’t be creeping much higher in terms of salary cap space any time soon, we’ve now got a lot more chips to deal with as we approach the draft (and that means, for selfish reasons, I get to justify spending more time prepping for it).

So let’s take a look at our latest moves and see if they can shed some light on what our plan might be come April 23rd.

Farewell: Emmanuel Sanders

While the extensions of Armstead and Ward seemed to make Emmanuel Sanders’ departure a foregone conclusion, he officially signed elsewhere on Friday. Yes, it sucks that we gave up a third round pick and dropped 17 slots between rounds four and five for a half-year rental. And yes, we will never know if a bidding war put us in that position or if the two picks were a product of us bidding against ourselves (a phenomenon known in scientific circles as “Trubisky-ing”). Either way, it’s totally fair to blame the Patriots for giving up a second rounder for Mohamed Sanu just earlier that day. But ultimately, I do think we needed him to get anywhere as far as we did last year. And, as I’m sure I’ve already said way too many times, if he isn’t overthrown in the fourth quarter, there is NO discussion on whether or not he was worth the value we gave up.

To make matters worse, Emmo was very truthful when he said he wanted to play 1-2 more years and was focused on winning another championship above getting a big payday. Because he signed a two-year $16M deal with the Saints. That gives a conference rival who has long been in search of a second option one of the better No.2’s in the league and does so at a bargain price. As for the Niners, while the writing has been on the wall for a minute now, this assures us of one thing: we will be drafting a wideout this year.

Best of luck to you, Emmo. You honestly balled out as well as anyone could have asked for. And while I think Sean Payton is a bit of a tool, I really do like Drew Brees, and — excluding the Niners, of course — will likely be rooting for the Saints over any other NFC contenders.

OL shuffling

Shon Coleman, last season’s top reserve tackle who went on IR before the season even started, returns on a one-year ~$900K contract. This is a move that was likely done because (A) the updated collective bargaining agreement allows one additional offensive lineman to dress on game days, (B) Coleman, despite his age and lack of playing time to this point, still has decent potential, and (B) the staff is planning to give all-purpose swingman Daniel Brunskill a shot at a starting position on the inside.

That starting position would almost certainly be right guard, as Mike Person, last year’s starter (and man whose name is amazingly generic), was just released.  Person, 32, was a solid run blocker who was familiar with Shanahan’s scheme and who served us well considering his price tag and journeyman career. That being said, he was also our very obvious weak spot in pass protection (according to PFF, he ranked 51st out of 61 qualifying guards in pass block efficiency), and — with his age and the lack of guaranteed money on his contract, the Niners decided to move forward and free up $2.5M in cap space. For Person, who was originally drafted by the Niners before getting cut, and who Shanahan once replaced in Atlanta with Alex Mack, it’s always the bridesmaid, never the bride. We thank you for your service, but it was time to move on.

The Niners sniffed around about former Bronco Connor McGovern, who was one of PFF’s top pass protecting centers last year and also has experience at guard, but he ultimately signed a three-year $27M contract with the Jets (a figure that the Niners surely were NOT planning to match). While McGovern likely would have been both a starting guard and/or an insurance policy / 2021 replacement for Weston Richburg, the Niners instead settled on Tom Compton, a part-time starter for the Jets. Based on that description alone, I can assure you, I have never seen this guy play a snap of football. 

Compton is another journeyman, and — according to PFF — one that actually graded out considerably worse than Person in 2019. My guess, on literally zero evidence, is that Compton is a guy whose athletic profile somewhat matches what Shanahan is looking for, who the Niners believe can perform better in their system than he did in New York, and who is being brought in entirely for depth. I would also be shocked if his one-year deal, worth “up to” $3M is anything close to $3M against the cap. I would assume he’s getting paid closer to the minimum, and his contract is loaded with NLTBE incentives that can only be achieved if he earns a starting role. 

Ben Garland, back up center, run blocker extraordinaire, and questionable-to-okay pass protector was also re-signed to a one-year deal worth $2.25M. While the terms of that contract aren’t available, I would believe — after he made $800K last year — that, like Compton, some of that sticker price would come in incentives that are unlikely to affect the 2020 cap.

So to round up this thrilling write-up on backup offensive linemen, the Niners have signed three one-year deals with very little guaranteed money while also retaining Brunskill on a minimum ERFA contract (a low rate which they have two more years of if they so choose). That likely means three things: (1) Brunskill, who played well everywhere and only struggled in his first career start at guard against Aaron Donald, will be given every chance to start at right guard this year, (2) we’re positioning ourselves for more shuffling along the offensive line in the next few years, and (3) we’re adding an offensive lineman at some point in this draft.

Short-term fixes and long-term investments

So now, with the smoke cleared and free agency likely over (for our purposes at least), we can get a clearer picture of what the Niners need to address in the draft, and — like always — it’s a layered set of immediate and long-term needs. When we were building towards a championship window, it made sense to lean heavier towards those long-term value, investing in foundational pieces and developmental projects for the coming years. But now that we’re currently smack dap in the middle of our championship window, keeping that window open as long as possible requires finding as many moves as possible that can simultaneously address both short and long-term concerns.

For example, Joe Staley is 36. And after coming back from injury last year, he played outstanding football. But he’s still 36. At best we should expect him to run out his current contract (two more years). So, if a player falls to us high in the draft who we see as a future starting tackle, we might select that player as a long-term investment (yes, in the NFL, one to two years away can be considered “long term”). But we are chip chasing now, and that player doesn’t move the needle as a third or fourth string tackle. But if he could start his career on the interior, perhaps learning the ropes as a guard or — while less likely — a center, then they could also be addressing a short-term concern as well.

Ultimately, I think former GM Trent Baalke’s inability to invest in both the short and long-term was — among other things — a major reason for why he flamed out. While the Niners were riding a dominant defense and run game to three straight NFC championships, Baalke got lots of the credit. And rightfully so. His 2011 draft class (rookies in Harbaugh’s first year) had Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter, and Bruce Miller, and that influx of talent — along with veteran additions like Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner — powered the team to three straight NFC Championship Games. But Baalke became too obsessed with the future, too overconfident in risky long-term investments, and too complacent with the idea that present-day success would perpetuate forever. 

Baalke’s next three drafts were headlined by AJ Jenkins, LaMichael James, ACL rehabbers Tank Carradine and Marcus Lattimore, Carlos Hyde, and Jimmie Ward. Yes, Eric Reid was in that crop and was a good fit for the remaining Harbaugh years, but even Ward — and future high picks like Arik Armstead — took multiple years to mature into major contributors. And long before those picks of his did pan out, the championship contending corps of the team was too old, there were too many holes that needed patching, and — of course — the relationship between Baalke and Harbaugh had soured beyond any potential reconciliation.

In short, no matter how good you think you are or how talented your roster is, you need to keep making moves. That’s the only way to sustain winning in the NFL. So our needs entering the draft, on a spectrum of short-term to long-term would look something like this:

Wide Receiver - Everyone and their mother wants the Niners picking a wideout at #13 overall. Sanders is gone, and despite the draft capital we’ve invested in the position in recent years, the only two wideouts we can truly count on in 2021 are Deebo and Bourne. Luckily, this draft class is stacked with receivers. The biggest question becomes if we target a more prototypical No.1 early or tap the depth of the class later with a co-star to pair with Deebo in a more specific role (outside deep receiver, speedy slot, etc.).

Interior OL - I’m bullish on Brunskill and how he’ll perform at guard, but — despite his promising first year — it’s far too early to tell what he could become as a full-time player at a position in which he’s had two career starts. The Niners showed their cards a bit by looking into McGovern, and with Compton and Garland on one-year deals, and the injury-prone Richburg’s restructured contract allowing the Niners the financial flexibility to — if needed — release him in 2021 while saving $3M on the books, getting a guy with center/guard flexibility and the ability to play soon would be nice insurance in case any number of things don’t go our way in 2020. The dream candidate? A future center (long term) who can at least make a push to play immediately at guard (present).

Secondary - While our secondary’s entire two deep returns this year, things will look a lot different a year from now. Moseley has two accrued NFL seasons, so he can be retained on an ERFA rate for one more year, but 2021 will see contracts up for Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, Jaquiski Tartt, and Ahkello Witherspoon. It would be smart to start adding players now who can work their way into sub-packages now and have starter potential as soon as next year.

Offensive Tackle - I wouldn’t put it past Joe Staley to play out his contract at a high level, but with the dearth of tackles around the league and this year’s talent-rich draft class at the position, it could be smart to invest in a future bookend to pair with McGlinchey. Unless of course that player is already on roster. Justin Skule — while protected by game-planning — performed mostly well when thrust into playing time as a rookie, but he likely projects as more of a third tackle than a long-term starter. Shon Coleman was a former third round pick with developmental upside who flashed well in Cleveland, but he’s yet to play a snap for the Niners in two years on the roster. He’s got potential and is known as an incredibly hard worker (he did win a two-and-a-half year battle with leukemia in college after all), but he’s at best a dark horse candidate for the position. As stated above, a guy who can play now inside and later outside could be a nice addition.

Tight End - The Niners kicked the tires on Austin Hooper before he signed with the Browns, so it’s clearly a position they’re looking at. Shanahan loves his 21 and 12 personnel groups so it’s not like the guy will go unused. And if the Niners are going to be investing big money in Kittle in the form of a fat extension, they’d prefer if he didn’t take so much of a beating on a snap-to-snap basis. Plus, there were just too many times where Kittle — one of their best receivers — had to stay back and help in pass pro on crucial downs. Adding a capable receiver and pass catcher could lighten the load. Practice squad-er Daniel Helm is a good athlete and has shown promise, but is he ready for a real role in 2020? Also, Delanie Walker is a free agent. Just saying… This is a spot the Niners could address in the mid rounds of the draft.

We’re now officially into draft season. And the posts will be comin in HAWT.