Off-Season Roster Outlook: Defense
![Just looking for an excuse to use a pic in these unis [Nhat V. Meyer / Bay Area News Group]](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e40f3a094d5fa3ebbbedb09/1582569470289-0O7RTG3VO0GS2OS0JC2T/BNG-L-49ERS-1028-12.jpg)
Just looking for an excuse to use a pic in these unis [Nhat V. Meyer / Bay Area News Group]
While our offense is (relatively) simple this off-season, our defense is very much the opposite. Starting with the core of our defensive resurgence…
Defensive Line
Take a breath. There’s a lot going on here.
Every defensive line coach ever talks about rotating defensive linemen to keep them fresh. But this year, under the tutelage of Kris Kocurek and the newly installed wide-nine scheme, we actually did that. Well, at least until we couldn’t any longer. That depth and rotation was crucial to our defensive turnaround and is something that we’ll need to keep going if we want to continue playing this scheme at this level.
Bosa, Buckner, Armstead, Jones, Ford, Blair, Thomas, and Day all had major rotational roles. The same could be said for Jullian Taylor, who — in the six games that he was healthy — played over 30% of defensive snaps four times. There was also Damontre Moore, who was only on roster and healthy for two games but averaged 37% of defensive snaps between them. And then you have the scores of reserves who were either promoted from the practice squad, activated from IR, or signed off the street to compensate for our huge wave of injuries by the end of the season. Let’s start with those late adds and go backwards up the depth chart, if for no other reason than so we can paint a slightly cleaner picture.
Earl Mitchell has already retired again. Anthony Zettel was added simply because we lacked bodies outside. If he gets brought back it’s on a minimum deal after the draft.
Jullian Taylor and Kevin Givens have a ton of potential inside, and both will be back. Taylor has two years left on his contract and is only making $685K in 2020. Givens was an undrafted free agent practice squad promotion who played in a single game. He’s raw but certainly worth locking up on a cheap multi-year contract. Both outplayed Kentavius Street, who has two years left on his contract to prove that he can shake the injuries that plagued him since college. If he doesn’t, his dead cap number is trivial and he could be a training camp cut.
Staying on the inside, Sheldon Day is a UFA. Despite his moderate snap counts, I’d have to assume the Niners are hoping some combination of Taylor/Givens/Street can replace his production, but with higher upside. D.J. Jones has one year left on a great deal, making just over $700K in 2020. As for Solomon Thomas, despite what is sure to be a push from some fans, there are no potential cap gains from cutting him. As a former No. 3 overall pick, his contract is fully guaranteed. There’s a chance we could split the difference of his nearly $9M cap hit if we were to trade him, but that too is something that would only be done after we’ve sorted through our situation on the DL.
On the edges, Damontre Moore — yet another AAF standout — was a mid-season add but a valuable pass rusher when he was on the field. He should be cheap to retain. Ronald Blair, a super underrated loss who went down to a torn ACL in week 10, probably won’t have a robust market given his injury. While he may not be able to contribute early, locking him up to something team-friendly would be a good way to sustain depth at the end position. He’s as good as it gets in terms of second-wave defensive ends. Losing both of those guys to IR around the exact same time really hurt us. Having either of them to spell Bosa/Ford in the Super Bowl could have been a game changer. According to PFF, both Moore and Blair had higher overall grades than Dee Ford, which… again, massive grain of salt, but they’re very good players.
Now, onto our starters (well, assuming a passing down, as no respect to DJ Jones).
Nick Bosa. Yeah, he’s not getting cut.
Dee Ford had the large majority of his guaranteed money front-loaded, a classic Paraag Marathe escape hatch that would allow us to move on from him without a huge dead cap hit if his play dipped or his injuries persisted. And while he was hampered by injuries this year, when he was on the field…
Bosa in particular really benefited from Ford’s presence. According to PFF, Bosa’s pass rush productivity rating was 10.3 on the season (a close second in the NFL behind Za’Darius Smith). In weeks without Ford, that dipped to 7.7 (19th in the league). In weeks with Ford, that rose to 11.9, which would have been first in the NFL by a VERY large margin.
Injuries aside, Ford was monumentally important to our defense. He’ll be retained on his current contract.
Next up is DeForest Buckner, whose sacks may have dipped a bit this season but who nabbed his first All-Pro selection in 2019. He’s started 63 of 64 possible games in his four years on the Niners and — in all four years — has led the team in snaps along the defensive line. Going into the fifth year option of his rookie contract, he’s in store for a massive extension.
While that extension will clearly be a hit to the salary cap over the long haul, it could actually lead to a cap discount this year. As a former top ten pick, his fifth year option rate is equal to the top 10 highest paid players at his position. So he’s on the books for $14.36M in 2020. Even if DeFo gets something in the $16.2M/year range (as estimated by Spotrac), which would make him the 5th-highest paid DT by annual salary, the contract structure could easily have a first year that’s closer to a $10M cap hit, thus giving us a bit more room to make other moves. Such as…
Re-signing Arik Armstead. It seems like getting a deal done with Armstead is the front office’s number one priority, and Armstead is certainly interested in continuing to play for the hometown favorite team that drafted him, so right now the tea leaves are saying that a deal gets done. But what would that look like?
Last year, six defensive linemen (including Dee Ford) signed contracts that would pay them an average annual salary over $17M. And both Frank Clark ($20.8M) and DeMarcus Lawrence ($21M) eclipsed the $20M/yr mark. I wouldn’t expect Armstead to set any new precedents, but determining his contract is further complicated by his very unique role in the Niners’ system.
Per Matt Barrows and David Lombardi of The Athletic:
A new deal for Armstead may be tricker. He’s coming off his best season by far, is due to be an unrestricted free agent and doesn’t fall easily into any category. He’s a base down defensive end who plays the run very well and who shifts inside to defensive tackle on passing downs. All 10 sacks in the regular season came while playing that spot.
The 49ers likely might be wary of inking a player coming off his lone standout season to a multi-year deal. Armstead, however, would be very difficult to replace. Without him, the team’s best in-house option would be a combination of Thomas and Blair — if Blair is re-signed — and neither player comes close to duplicating the 6-7 Armstead’s power.
There’s also two red flags to a contract extension of this type, and while — in the case of Armstead — I don’t think either will be a major issue, they’re both worth mentioning:
Injuries: Since 2016, Armstead has had foot, hand, and labrum surgeries, missing 22 games across his second and third seasons. Since then, he’s started all 16 games in back-to-back years. Hand injuries are pure flukes, and the foot injury was a minor cleanup. The labrum could be troublesome but that was back in 2016, so since there hasn’t been any flare ups, I wouldn’t worry about it. In terms of durability, Armstead is no Buckner, but I (knock on wood) don’t think injuries should be a major concern moving forward.
One Year Wonder, Contract Year Bump: A defensive lineman with little pass rush production who then blows up in their contract year is perhaps THE classic red flag of free agency, but I think it’s an overstated concern in the case of Armstead.
First off, that bump often happens from a speedy edge rusher who was raw out of college, finally put things together, had some luck with QB hits converting to sacks at an alarming rate, and who had motivation or consistency issues leading up to their contract year.
While Armstead was raw out of college, he’s a power rusher not a speed rusher, has never seemed to have motivation issues, has been a consistent force against the run for years, and he’s actually been on the wrong side of QB hits-to-sacks luck in previous years (his 29 QB hits over four years should have equated closer to 12 sacks, but instead of he netted only 7).
Further helping his cause, Armstead was drafted into a 3-4 system, where — according to PFF — he led the nation in pass rush productivity in both 2014 and 2015 (albeit with a much lower snap count than most others on the leaderboard and with very little sack production). He lost the majority of his first year in Saleh’s system, was a strong run defender in 2018, and then — with a new coach, new scheme, and a new role where he slid inside on passing downs — finally broke through as a pass rusher in 2019. All of that will be repeated in 2020. Finally, I would also posit that — given how many snaps he lined up on the edge where he is not as much of a pass rush threat — his pass rushing impact as an interior linemen is actually underrated.
Also worth mentioning, if Armstead walks in free agency, we are almost certainly looking at a third round comp pick in 2021 to offset his loss. He’s an edge rusher, they get paid, and if Armstead leaves his hometown favorite team to play somewhere else, he must REALLY be getting paid.
So yeah, I don’t have any issues locking up Armstead on a 3-5 year deal at somewhere in the $17-18M range. In a vacuum that makes total sense. But when you look at the fact that we could theoretically have three different players costing around ~$17M just on our defensive line (with Bosa only cheaper because he’s on a rookie deal), there are obvious questions about long-term sustainability.
Which I’ll get to later.
Linebackers
On the field, the big ticket acquisition of Kwon Alexander lasted 8 regular season games and a few up-and-down playoff performances, but the impact Kwon had on the locker room was immense. From the first snaps of training camp, he helped establish the energy and personality of the Niners’ defensive resurgence. That not only led to a huge leap in play from Fred Warner, but really seemed to be a case where a special leader lifted all boats.
And while it's easy to stress someone’s “intangibles” and “leadership” considering there are no ways to causally attach those qualities to wins on the field, Kwon’s locker room impact was shown repeatedly throughout the year. Despite being ejected in week 1 against the Bucs, Kwon was given the game ball. When asked who the team’s MVP was after the regular season, Nick Bosa named Kwon, despite the latter missing half of said season. And when it came to defensive coaches naming the team’s most inspirational player, Kwon took home the award.
In 2020, it’s clear that Kwon isn’t going anywhere, as he — like Richburg — restructured his contract mid-season to give the team more 2020 cap space, lowering his base salary below $1M and his cap hit to $4.5M, while making it financially impossible to cut him this year ($14.5M in dead cap).
Elsewhere, Fred Warner had a career year and is entering the third year of a third round rookie contract. He’s cheap. Greenlaw became the latest 5th round difference maker on our squad, starting half of the games and actually finishing the season as our best run defender amongst linebackers and one of the surest tacklers in the game. And while both Kwon and Warner had their tackling issues at times, Greenlaw’s four missed tackles on 96 attempts was good for second-best in the NFL in terms of tackling efficiency (behind only Corey Littleton).
Both Greenlaw and undrafted free agent Azeez Al-Shair, who played well when forced into action and will only improve now that he’s a full year removed from ACL surgery, are on incredibly team friendly deals. Together, they’ll barely cost $1M in 2020.
Elijah Lee is an RFA. He may be brought back, but if he is I’d expect it to be later in the off-season. I don’t think he gets tendered. Rounding out the linebackers, Mark Nzeocha plays only special teams, is making $1.5M with zero guaranteed cash, and would theoretically be a potential cut candidate. But… he is pretty good on special teams, and you can only deplete those units so much.
Looking to the future, in the 2021 season, the combination of Warner, Greenlaw, and Al-Shair COMBINED will make $2.3M. But for a team that only starts two linebackers and only uses three, how do we employ what could be four starting caliber linebackers in 2020 and beyond?
Again, I’ll get to that at the end.
Secondary
Let’s start with the cornerbacks.
Richard Sherman, fresh off an All-Pro selection that saw him hit a number of contract bonuses, returns for the final year of his contract at a $14M cap hit. Opposite him, undrafted free agent gem Emmanuel Moseley is an ERFA, meaning he can be brought back on the minimum. Although, similar to Brunskill, it may make sense to lock him up longer given their long-term outlook. Either way, he’s a lock for the 2020 roster.
K’Waun Williams, one of the top nickel corners in the game and a player who made our move to a base 4-2-5 much more tenable, has a year left on the contract he signed when Shanahan first came onboard. At $3.1M, he’s a steal.
As for the backups, it’s sink-or-swim time for Ahkello Witherspoon, who enters the final season of his rookie contract at a crossroads. Despite his length and movement skills, it would be surprising to see him surpass Moseley in the off-season. But while cutting him would save the team nearly $2M, you always need cornerback depth and he — at times — has played well. At a $2.5M salary and with tons of (largely untapped) potential, it would be a shocker if he’s not back in 2020.
DJ Reed has two more years left on his rookie deal and continues to provide depth and flexibility as a potential nickel corner or free safety. Jason Verrett played a grand total of four plays for us last year before getting toasted and injured. He likely won’t be back, but if he is, it will be in a Dontae Johnson “we’ll grab you later if we need you” sort of role. Finally, Tim Harris — 6th round rookie and PFF darling who was on IR all year — waits in the wing with considerable long-term potential (if he can stay healthy). I wouldn’t expect him to push for major minutes next year, but it should be taken as a good sign if he starts forcing his way into some dime personnel groups.
At safety, Jaquiski Tartt had his best season of the year. He’s on the last year of his contract and, with a $6.7M cap hit, could potentially be an extension candidate (although how they value him versus his extensive injury history could make negotiations interesting). While there’s a ton of noise with any of our end of season defensive stats, this was still the team’s performance with and without him.
His backup, Marcell Harris has one more year at just over the minimum. Despite clear coverage limitations, he’s a good player against the run, and you always need a backup for Tartt, a player who has yet to play all 16 games in his career.
The big question becomes Jimmie Ward, who — when finally healthy and finally playing free safety full-time — had a career year. He was seemingly always in the right place at the right time, using his impeccable timing to break up tons of passes over the middle and filling hard against the run. According to PFF, he was the third best safety in the NFL in 2019. All this would imply he’s in for a big pay day, but…
It’s really hard to tell what kind of market Ward will find in free agency. Unlike the consistently robust demand (and contract size) for defensive linemen, the market for safeties has been up and down. There are a handful that have gotten paid big contracts in the past few years, but the demand seems to run hot and cold.
Also unlike Armstead’s situation, while Ward had shown glimpses in his first five years in the league, he didn’t have something like “killer run defender” to hang his hat on for multiple seasons. Yes, part of that is because he was asked to play all over the field for a number of horrid defenses, but this was his best year by a country mile.
And while Armstead has largely shaken any durability red flags with two back-to-back years of starting 16 games, Ward finished the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons on IR, actually missed the first three games of this season, and has missed at least three games in every single season other than his second year in the league. His injuries (according to Sports Injury Predictor) include:
2014: quad (1 game); foot fracture repair after post-college surgery (7 games)
2016: quad (3 games); broken collarbone (2 games)
2017: hamstring (1 game); forearm fracture (8 games)
2018: forearm fracture (7 games)
2019: collarbone fracture (3 games)
That’s multiple soft tissue injuries, two forearm fractures, two injured collarbones — both which could have resulted in more lost games if not for their timing late in the season and early in training camp — and 32 missed games over a six year period.
So what does that mean for Ward’s next contract? In the past two seasons, Eddie Jackson, Kevin Byard, Tyrann Mathieu, Landon Collins, and Earl Thomas have all gotten contracts that give them ~$14M a year. I don’t expect Ward to get anywhere near that kind of money. While PFF projects (sees: totally guesses) something closer to 2-years at $8M a year for the Niners to retain him.
But at what point is the financial commitment of re-signing Ward so great that we hand the keys to Tarvarius Moore instead? He played (mostly) well in the three games to start the season, and still has two more years left on his rookie contract?
To get a better idea of that, we may have to look at…
The Future (oooh ahhh)
Let’s look at 2021 for a second. While it’s a ways away (a year, to be exact) it’s important to make all personnel decisions with the next few years in mind, especially as we’re talking about extensions and big contracts that are fatter in the back years.
So how much does it make sense to pay Ward when we clearly have a young replacement who is yes, a step down, but is much cheaper? And does it make sense to prioritize Ward over someone like Emmo Sanders who has a more specific and harder to replicate role on offense? Or should we move on from both and hope that the young players behind them improve enough to step into more prominent roles?
These are the tough questions facing the front office right now. Because while the urge to “run it back” is understandably high considering how dominant we were during the regular season and how close we were to winning the Super Bowl, that’s not always the best route towards sustained success.
Even if we retain Armstead and Ward, thus returning our entire starting defense, we have at least four defensive starters who have contracts up after 2020 (Sherman, Tartt, K’Waun, and DJ Jones), plus Solomon Thomas and Akhello Witherspoon and (depending on if he signs a one-year tender this off-season) Emmanuel Moseley. Plus players like Fred Warner and Tarvarius Moore will be entering the final year of their rookie contracts and could be looking at extensions.
In 2021, will it make sense to keep Kwon for $16.5M against the cap when there are 1-2 replacements on rookie deals behind him, one who is potentially already a better player against the run? Will we want to re-up a 33 year-old Richard Sherman on a contract that is likely to be less team friendly than his current one? We know we need a speedy edge rusher to maximize our pass rush, but will Dee Ford be healthy enough to play more than the 7th-most snaps amongst our DL (his 2019 mark)? If not, do we keep his $17.6M salary? Do we have to because we haven’t invested in a potential alternative in the draft? And these questions aren’t only for the defense. At the moment, Weston Richburg’s 2021 cap hit of $11.4M is greater than the average annual salary of any center in the league, so we’d naturally expect a consistently healthy, top tier center for that price point. But if he’s not that in 2020, do we have the depth to move on?
These questions may be a year away, but they NEED to be taken into account now so that we keep the cap space and flexibility to pick and choose who we need to retain in the following years. This is the struggle for good teams in a hard-capped league. When you’re bad, you can retain everyone, you just don’t want to. When you’re good, you can’t retain everyone, even though you’re more likely to want to. And all the while, you need to build depth through the draft and bargain basement free agency acquisitions.
In the NFL, a big part of sustained success is being picky with your extensions and letting the right people walk (and accruing comp picks in the process). Now that we no longer have the free-spending cap space and mentality of a bad team, can we pick and choose correctly? Because while it’s an inarguable fact that Lynch and Shanahan (and Adam Peters and Marathe) have done a great job of rebuilding this team and assembling a bonafide contender, staying at the top is an entirely different animal.