Trade Deadline Primer
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Through the ShanaLynch era, we’ve been as active a team as any at the trade deadline, adding at least one player at every deadline except for one (2018). The results have been overwhelmingly positive:
2017: Jimmy G (2nd round)
2019: Emmanuel Sanders (3rd round)
2020: Jordan Willis (6th/7th pick swap)
2021: Charles Omenihu (2023 6th round)
2022: Christian McCaffrey (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2023 5th)
2023: Randy Gregory (6th/7th pick swap)
2023: Chase Young (3rd round)
Realistically, last year’s trades were the only ones you could really have any complaints about, and those were pretty necessary (plus, Chase Young did perform well in the Super Bowl). So with the trade deadline a week away, it makes sense to take a look at a potential trade or two during our bye week.
Unlike past years, I have no interest in swapping a third-rounder for a veteran. We need to get younger in a hurry so those are picks we need to keep. But given the atrocious returns teams have been getting for their established players thus far, we should be able to get someone of value for something in the 6th/7th round range.
When analyzing the trade market, I’m typically looking at (1) teams that suck who might be looking to sell off assets, (2) players with expiring contracts on teams that aren’t looking to re-sign them, and (3) teams that are flush with 2025 cap space, as a likely spending spree would cancel out any potential comp picks they might gain from their expiring contracts leaving via free agency. Teams that check any of the above boxes are more likely to be sellers, but teams that check all the boxes (looking at you, Patriots) are highly motivated to move players.
Of course, there are also some guys with multiple years left on their deals who could prove intriguing fits (CMC and Charles Omenihu in years past), but they’re a bit harder to single out without knowing who is truly being shopped and what teams have soured on what prospects.
While noting what could indicate a team is a seller, it’s also worth noting what could cockblock a trade before it even gets started. Those elements often include (A) an unreasonable owner who is either really old (like by owner standards, not normal human being standards) and hates moving players, (B) a team that is far too optimistic in its current and future prospects, and (C), and this is the big one, a team that has a coach and/or GM who might be getting their ass fired if they don’t finish the season better than they started it. Jerod Mayo, in his first year at the helm, is not getting fired by the Patriots. But the entirety of the Giants? TBD.
WIDE RECEIVERS
I’m a little torn about adding a receiver because–while we need an outside man-beater for the stretch run–we also drafted two wideouts this season and don’t want to hinder their development. Cowing may not break into the offense by season’s end, but it feels like we should at least be able to manufacture looks to utilize his speed, and Pearsall—despite playing only two games—has improved quite dramatically since returning from injury.
But, if we need someone a bit more established to carry the load–or even a rotational guy to help in small quantities and specific matchups–there are options available. Since Diontae Johnson was just had from the Ravens for the equivalent of a 10-ish pick swap at the bottom of the fifth round, anyone on this list should be able to be snagged for much less.
WR, Darius Slayton, Giants: Slayton has been consistently solid throughout the years and seems a tad underrated simply because he plays on a team that hasn’t been able to pass the ball since before the pandemic. He’s got legit field stretching ability–something we need–and is a smooth mover, which makes me think he could at least run the digs and crossers we like so much. Over the two games Malik Nabers missed due to a concussion, Slayton as WR1 averaged 7 grabs for 89.5 yards, and he just put up a 4-108-0 line against the Steelers on Monday night. If we add a one-year rental at wideout, he’s probably our best option.
WR, Kendrick Bourne, Patriots: Despite leaving the bay four years ago, KB seems to have a lot of fans left at Niners headquarters. He knows the scheme, we know he’s a good fit, and his vibes are (by all accounts) immaculate, but–in his four years in New England–he’s been ravaged by injuries and poor QB play. He missed the first month of the season due to injury and it’s hard to tell how much he’s got left in the tank.
WR, Mike Williams, Jets: Speaking of guys with questionable amounts left in the tank, Mike Williams has fallen deep down the depth chart with the addition of Davante Adams (and the fact that Aaron Rodgers probably hates him). He’s (in theory) still a vertical threat, but he’s never been much more than that, so not sure what our value is for a guy who specializes in clear outs and deep balls but isn’t well-versed in the underneath stuff.
WR, Dontayvion Wicks, Packers: File this under highly unlikely, but Wicks–who at times looked like the Packers’ best receiver last season–is fourth in snap count this year. There’s no real reason for the Packers to move on from a dude in the second year of his rookie deal and the Niners have two rookies who they like at the position, but—at some point—the Packers will need to make some decisions on their rookie contract receiving corps.
RUNNING BACKS
Consider this a “break glass in case of emergency” situation. If CMC is coming back healthy and Jordan Mason’s shoulder is expected to improve with time off, we don’t need another running back. But if either (or, god forbid, both) of our backs have injury concerns exiting the bye, we need to add another body to a running back room that otherwise only has a rookie who missed training camp and a special teamer.
RB, Chuba Hubbard, Panthers: CMC’s replacement in Carolina is bound for replacement himself with the eventual activation of second-round running back Jonathan Brooks. The Panthers are selling off the farm and with Hubbard on an expiring deal and Brooks the back of the future, there’s not a ton of incentive for them to keep him. Chuba’s been solid–albeit not spectacular–for years with little help in Carolina, and he’s been averaging 5.0 ypc and nearly 75 yards/game for the lowly Panthers this season. It’s not hard to see how he could feast in our run game and if we (again, god forbid) need a new starting running back, we could do much worse.
RB, Raheem Mostert, Dolphins: Is he injury-prone? Yes. Do we also know he could plug in where he left off and have immediate success? Also, yes. The Dolphins have drafted De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright in the past two drafts. I still think they prefer Mostert to handle the dirty work between the tackles, but it’s a position of strength for a team that—if they lose to the Bills this week—is functionally eliminated from playoff contention.
RB, Jeff Wilson, Dolphins: Not sure how much Wilson’s got left in the tank, but we know he runs hard and we know he’s buried on the Dolphins depth chart.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
Of all the positions we’re most likely to tap in the trade market, defensive tackle tops the list. With the off-season departures of Armstead and Kinlaw, the season-ending injury to Hargrave, and the long-term injury of Yetur Gross-Matos, we’ve gotten thin in a hurry on the interior. That’s been part to blame for our run defense being pretty average thus far. While we like Kalia Davis and Evan Anderson, a full season of major reps can wear down young tackles, and our defense requires a huge number of serviceable bodies along the DL.
DT, DJ Jones, Broncos: Another reunion candidate, DJ has been brought up a lot and would be a tremendous addition. He’s big and athletic and active against the run and the pass. Plus, he’s on an expiring deal and in the middle of a deep DL rotation. But I don’t think the Broncos are selling. They are (somehow) 5-3 and seem keen on keeping a fully stocked defensive line.
DT, DeForest Buckner, Colts: DeFo’s name has gotten floated around a bit as well, but he probably falls into a similar bucket as DJ Jones. Despite missing most of the season, he’s still performing at a high level and the Colts likely aren’t looking to sell. Even if they wanted to move him to clean up their cap (a very Colts thing to do), his contract, which has a $13M base salary and $10M guaranteed bonuses in both of the next two years would be costly enough that this might wind up a rental. That would likely mean draft compensation commensurate with a multi-year acquisition but attached to a contract we might not be able to stomach beyond this year. It’s a great thought, and if the compensation and the finances can be finagled, he’d be the best choice we could add. But those are some serious “ifs.”
DT, Davon Godchaux, Patriots: A true nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme, Godchaux hasn’t registered a sack in two years but leads the league in run stops, a truly impressive feat for an interior lineman. At 6’3 330 pounds, he’s a mountain of a man but still has enough quicks to run down Aaron Rodgers and deliver a hilarious post-game quote about it.
Unlike the first two names on this list, Godchaux is a realistic target who we might be able to secure on the cheap, but it’s unclear if his contract running through 2026 is a benefit or a drawback given our current roster construction.
DT, Calais Campbell, Dolphins: This probably isn’t happening, and there’s a chance that Campbell–especially at the age of 38–should only be playing in 3-4 fronts. But I’ve always liked him and he’s still got a shocking amount of pass rush juice, with 16 pressures and a 12.2% pass rush win rate this season. He could also bounce outside on clear running downs.
DT, Maurice Hurst, Browns: I feel like an absolute homer for still beating this drum, but Hurst is an excellent scheme fit, flashed with us before getting promptly hurt, has never finished a season with a PFF rating below 71 and peaked with an 83 PFF rating last season. He’s also on an expiring contract and is currently buried on a talented Browns DL that just drafted a rookie in the second round.
DT, Adam Butler, Raiders: Floating on a one-year deal for a team that’s going nowhere, Adam Butler was one of the pieces of those Patriots defenses that–not so long ago–was so strong that they made that team relevant. At this point, Butler’s probably a deep rotational dude, but he was known for his quick feet and versatility on stunts and twists with the Patriots. So there’s some hope of a little pass rush juice left.
DT, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Titans: Would we trade a 7th rounder (or less) to get back Joseph-Day, a player who we’re currently slotted to get a 7th round comp pick for after he left in the off-season? Is that even allowed? Not sure he’d move the needle beyond our young bloods, but if we’re looking for depth, I guess there’s a chance.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
I will continue to beat the drum of Sam Okuayinonu, who had another 5 pressures and a sack against the Cowboys, with three of those pressures coming from when he lined up inside. While Yetur Gross-Matos should return after the bye, the Niners are clearly toying with other ways to get outside speed on inside pass blockers. But despite the addition of Floyd, the emergence of Okuayinonu, and plenty of draft capital spent on the position, we still only have three functional defensive ends. We could use some more juice outside.
DE, Trey Hendrickson, Bengals: Hendrickson isn’t the sort of name that would typically be put on one of these lists, and maybe he shouldn’t be on this one either. Because of Burrow + Chase + Higgins, I don’t think the Bengals will be sellers at the deadline, and guys like Hendrickson (a team’s top edge rusher) typically just get locked up by their squads on long-term deals. But Hendrickson is nearly 30, he’s complained about his contract, and–perhaps most importantly–the Bengals are notoriously cheap. It’s not likely, but he’s worth mentioning cause he’s a really good player (7 sacks this season, 17.5 in 2023) at a position of need, and with his size (6-4 270 lbs.) he might even be able to give us some inside-outside versatility on passing downs.
DE, Azeez Ojulari, Giants: Like Hendrickson, Ojulari is a bit different from the other guys on this list because he’s so young (on his rookie deal) and has already produced at a pretty high level. Young productive players on the edge typically don’t get moved, but the Giants–who have so many needs at so many other positions–have two entrenched young players ahead of Ojulari on the depth chart: Brian Burns, who they just dimed out in the off-season, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, who they drafted fifth overall just two years ago. Thibodeaux has been injured for the past three weeks, and–while stepping in for him on the starting lineup–Ojulari has racked up 13 pressures and 5 of his 6 sacks on the season. While PFF doesn’t love him (middling 59.8 rating), he has more sacks than anyone on our team in a mostly rotational role and has an excellent 14% pressure rate on the year. Like Hendrickson, I don’t know what the asking price would be, and that could ultimately be a sticking point, but this would be a deal made with the hope of it resulting in a multi-year arrangement.
DE, Za’Darius Smith, Browns: A traditional “vet on an expiring contract” trade prospect, Smith–like Shaq Barrett–was part of that free agent pass rusher class that netted us Dee Ford. So there’s always been a bit of a “one that got away” energy to him. Smith–like Ford–also missed huge amounts of time with a neck injury, but–unlike Ford–has rebounded nicely and still provides a ton of juice off the edge. Despite his age (32), he’s registered 5 sacks so far this year and is coming off two straight seasons (across two different teams) with a PFF rating putting him in the top 15ish of edges. The Browns are very deep along the DL. If they do decide to move anyone, there are a few names–even in addition to the guys listed already–who could be in play.
DE, JaDeveon Clowney, Panthers: After getting functionally nothing in return for Diontae Johnson (the most generous calculation I’ve seen equated the draft capital gained to the equivalent of a seventh-round pick), Carolina is clearly in fire sale mode. I’ve always found Clowney pretty overrated. Dude came into the league as a “generational prospect,” but he hasn’t once registered double-digit sacks in his career and some of his comments and the contracts he’s been hunting haven’t always aligned with reality. But the physical tools are undeniable and when he’s on, he can still be a disruptive force on the line of scrimmage. Has he been on this season? Not really. But after going from the Ravens to the Panthers, a change of scenery might help.
DE, Arden Key, Titans: With the departure of Derrick Henry and the recent trade of DeAndre Hopkins, The Titans seem more willing than most to call a full-on fuck it and really commit to a rebuild. So perhaps we could be in for a reunion with Key, who is signed through 2025 but had his career resuscitated by Kocurek during his one year in Santa Clara. Key specialized on inside-out stunts on passing downs and–if acquired–would (sorta) help us fill two holes at once.
DE, Baron Browning, Broncos: This is a swing on potential more than anything else. Browning is an interesting prospect because he had 5 sacks in 2022 and 4.5 last year, but has yet to take down the quarterback this season while rotating in as the Broncos’ fourth defensive end. But he’s a former five-star recruit and a truly elite athlete. At the NFL combine in 2021, his RAS athleticism score was a 9.98 out of 10, which was good for 5th-best out of 2,118 prospects since 1987… at linebacker. And now he’s playing on the edge. We’ve targeted and had a lot of success with guys like Omenihu and Jordan Willis who we liked the physical profile of out of college but who simply weren’t developed enough where they were drafted. Browning would be a splashier athlete than any of them and one with substantial upside.
Go Niners 🏈👍