Day 3 Watchlist
While it may take place during Saturday morning cartoons (are these still a thing?), the third day of the draft is critically important—especially for us. Of the 24ish players we could consider starters, exactly half of them were found on the third day of the draft or later. We’ve drafted this day as well as any team in the NFL, which is a big reason why we’ve been able to offset the many misses we’ve had in the first three rounds. As a perfect example of this, after signing Trent Taylor last week, all eleven of our fifth-round picks since Shanahan and Lynch took over seven years ago are currently on contract in the NFL. Five of them start for us. That’s an absurd stat.
I think one of the reasons why we’ve done so well in unearthing late-round and undrafted talents is that once the third day rolls around, we have historically swung more on players whose traits may be in question but whose character is not. Hufanga was too slow to play safety. Lenoir was too small to play corner. Greenlaw was a bit undersized and ran a slow forty (lol). Kittle, uh… yeah, not sure what happened there. But the fact remains that these guys have vastly overperformed their draft position because they were scheme fits and because high-character dudes are much more likely to put in the work to vault above their selection. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t take any swings on guys with tantalizing traits (there are many listed below). The dream is always to get guys like Greenlaw and Kittle who have sky-high potential and character. But the latter seems to power our late-round decision-making more than the former.
Continuing to find legitimate contributors out of the last four rounds will play a big part in our ability to sustain our success. That said, the depth of this draft is clustered in its top 100-150 and some believe there is a steep drop-off after that. Add in the fact that we have ten total picks for 5ish (max) roster spots and we should be expecting to wheel and deal a lot of these late-round picks to maneuver positioning and (ideally) add picks for next year.
I’ve clustered players by the best-guess round that they’ll be selected below. This is always an inexact science on day 3, but probably more so in a year when there’s said to be a steep talent drop-off before the last rounds. Don’t be surprised if someone listed in the sixth round winds up going in the fourth. That could mean it’s a reach, but—in this class more so than others—it may simply point to a lack of late-round depth and variance in scouting opinions.
4TH ROUND
When your nickname is Bort, you are required to have a mullet
While the three-day draft split has drawn an imaginary line between the third and fourth rounds, I still believe you should be able to consistently find contributors in the fourth. While it seems unlikely that we’ll keep all of them, we have three picks within a 12-pick span at the end of this round (124, 132, 135). The names below aren’t typically listed in any particular order, but I am going to lead off with players who may be able to start as rookies.
Offensive line mentions will continue until morale improves. Even if we snag a guy in the first two days we are almost certain to take either (A) a developmental player later in the draft or (B) another dude (likely on the interior) who can at least push for starting time now. As a four-year starter at right tackle, OT, Caeden Wallace (Penn State) is more the latter. He’s a high-floor player with a workmanlike approach to the game who tested better athletically than many expected and one of the few potential rookie starters at right tackle who might still be around at this point in the draft.
Another guy who could play sooner rather than later on the OL is OG, Zak Zinter (Michigan). He’s not huge nor the most impressive athlete, but he’s strong, smart, does a great job with his hands, and would only be around at this point in the draft because he suffered a broken tibia and fibula in late November. While the talk with our linemen is almost always more about mobility due to our affinity for stretch running, that’s a bit more relevant on the outside. At guard, we often prioritize strength (Aaron Banks, Laken Tomlinson) over a guy who lacks punch in the run game. Besides, we are running more and more gap schemes each year.
If you’re drafting Zinter for his floor, you’re taking C, Tanor Bortolini (Wisconsin), aka “Bort” (lol), for his ceiling. He started 28 games in his four years in Wisconsin, playing every position along the OL except for left tackle. Entering the year, he expected to be a starting guard before an injury forced him inside to center. The last-second move led to some expected hiccups, and his shorter arms and lack of power mean he must do everything else better to compensate, but his athletic potential is truly sky-high.
That’s as a guard. When compared to other centers he gets a perfect 10 out of 10 grade. According to Next Gen Stats, Bortolini is only the 5th interior lineman to record a 99 athleticism score since 2003, a group that includes Jason Kelce, the man whose 3-cone record (for interior OL) Bortolini just beat. But he’s not all traits. He’s also one of the smartest linemen in this class, is plenty skilled, and offers some positional flexibility if he doesn’t start right away. We could do much worse this late in the draft than swing on a dude with elite upside at the pivot position.
Every year we look for a guy who could be the heir apparent to Juice and/or a reliable backup to Kittle with some pass-catching ability. TE, Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) is one of the better options we’ve seen. He’s got average size and length and will always be more of a positional blocker in the NFL, but he’s a super smart, fluid athlete, with good change of direction skills (topped all TEs in three-cone, vert, and broad jump at the combine) and the ability to play out of the backfield, in-line, or anywhere else in the formation. He may not be for everyone, but he’s a slam-dunk scheme fit for us.
LB, Trevin Wallace (Kentucky) is a speedy linebacker who could wind up in the late third round, especially after running a 4.51 and posting a 37.5” vertical at the combine. His size, length, and athleticism are undeniably impressive, but–at the moment–he’s a traits guy, which is why I put him here. His consistency, instincts, and awareness are not there at the moment. A lack of instincts on tape doesn’t always mean you won’t get there. Sometimes a player just needs more reps and/or the right coaching to unlock them mentally. But lack of instincts scares me in linebackers like lack of vision scares me in running backs.
Another rangy development linebacker is LB, Cedric Gray (North Carolina), a tackling machine (100+ tackles each of the last three seasons) who stuffed the stat sheet through college. He’s not particularly strong, which can be a problem when he has to take on and shed blocks, but he’s got sideline speed and is an ascending talent in coverage. Even if he has to be protected, he’s got plenty of tools to work with.
While it may seem surprising that USC’s defense had any draftable players last year, S, Calen Bullock (USC) was a Freshman All-American back in 2021, before following that up with second-team and first-team All-Pac-12 selections. With 32 starts over three years, he’s a long cover man with excellent athleticism who plays the ball like a receiver, has the positional flexibility to line up at safety or nickel, and will only be 20 years old by draft day. But he is very skinny for a safety (6’2” 188 lbs.) and–while a willing tackler–that lack of size has shown up in the run game. He’s got genuine ballhawk potential in the NFL, but he’ll need to improve his strength, pursuit angles, and tackling technique to avoid being a liability versus the run.
Now that we’re out of the first two days, we can look more closely at pure slots, and there are a lot of them in this draft. WR, Jacob Cowing (Arizona) is a diminutive player with excellent speed and athleticism, which he routinely shows after the catch. He’ll always be limited by his size and lack of play strength, but a guy who can get open underneath, push vertically, and run after the catch is intriguing on Day 3. And he at least seems willing to block in the run game.
If you’re looking for a different kind of body and a whole different skill set, WR, Brenden Rice (USC) has the size and physicality to make grabs in traffic and in the red zone (one TD for every 5.2 catches in college) but he lacks the quickness and burst we usually require of our receivers to get open underneath. The son of the GOAT is still putting the pieces together and could be a better pro than a college player, but he might find a better fit in a different scheme.
5TH ROUND
Finding a starter in the fourth is a big (yet possible) ask, but finding one in the 5th is simply unrealistic. Yes, Greenlaw, Kittle, and Huf all started as rookie fifth-rounders, but you never want to enter the round expecting that sort of outcome. We only have one pick in this round (176) and will likely be looking for someone with developmental upside who we can bring along slowly. This is also where the ability to play special teams becomes hugely beneficial to any pick’s chances at making the active roster.
We just left the fourth round with a legacy name, so let’s start the fifth with another (kind of). WR, Luke McCaffrey (Rice) is a former QB turned wideout with nice quicks and short-area burst and shockingly good contested catch ability given how new he is to the position (his contested catch rate was second-best in FBS behind only Rome Odunze of Washington).
Despite being CMC’s brother, his athleticism doesn’t always turn into separation at the moment and he’s got a lot of stuff to shore up considering he’s only played the position for two years. But his growth during that time has been explosive, and his upside is legitimately intriguing. McCaffrey is 6’2” 198 lbs., had the fastest short shuttle among all wideouts and the second fastest 3-cone, and already shows great hands, toughness, and work ethic. He also has some experience returning punts. This is more than a legacy play. There’s something here.
WR, Tajh Washington (USC) is more of a slippery, athletic slot who can create after the catch. That YAC ability–plus his knack for getting behind defenders–made him an excellent pairing with Caleb Williams as one of USC’s top big-play threats. While vastly undersized, he was remarkably durable in college and his ability as a return man and gunner would help his chances of making the roster.
We know we’re interested in adding a tight end, and If we’re looking to try and “build one” out of traits, TE, Tip Reiman (Illinois) could be the way to go. At 6’5 271 lbs., he dwarfs a lot of the other tight ends in this class, but he also happened to run a 4.64 at the combine (and–according to NFL.com–his full athletic testing ranked 1st of all tight ends). His character and work ethic are lauded, he played largely in-line (also not common in college) and is a physical blocker both in-line and in space. But he isn’t particularly sudden and–despite starting the past two years–he’s only seen 59 targets in his career(!). Are we likely to be scheming up YAC looks for him anytime soon? No. And he might just top out as a bigger Charlie Woerner who presents little to nothing as a receiver. But with his size and speed, there’s at least some potential for him to be a guy who can bang in the box and threaten with the occasional seam, corner, or crosser in the passing game.
CB, Kalen King (Penn State) is projected anywhere from the 4th to the 7th round, which is wild considering this time last year he was largely considered a first-round pick. A horrid junior year and some poor testing numbers have plummeted his stock, but somewhere in there is the guy who had 21(!) passes defended as a sophomore. At this point in the draft, the upside is high and the downside is minimal.
While King’s stock has been falling, CB, Elijah Jones’ (Boston College) has been rising. With his height (6’1” 185 lbs.), athleticism (4.44 forty, 42.5” vertical), and ball skills (28 broken-up passes and 7 picks over the past two seasons), it’s easy to see why. But he’s got a good amount of sloppiness and inconsistency in his game so is more of a developmental guy—albeit one with tremendous potential.
CB, DeCamerion Richardson (Mississippi State) is another tall (6’2” 188 lbs.) and athletic (4.34 forty, 6.96 3-cone) developmental prospect. His physical tools are as impressive as anyone in the class and he’s an excellent tackler, but you really shouldn’t have as many tackles as he did in college at corner because that means you’re giving up a lot of receptions, and his ability to find and play the ball in the air is a major question. He’s got the right size, tools, and physicality to fit well in our scheme, but if he can’t find the ball in the NFL the floor is quite low.
When is it too early to draft a running back? For us? At any point earlier than right now. RB, Isaac Guerendo (Louisville) is this draft’s size-speed darling, and–in that regard–he is undeniably impressive.
As the chart makes clear, Guerendo’s combination of size, speed, and burst is rare and he’s a home run threat from anywhere on the field, but his career production leaves a lot to be desired. He has a single career start (this year’s bowl game), doesn’t play as big as his size, and his instincts, vision, and patience are all lacking. Yes, those traits can develop, and yes they’re likely easier to develop in a zone and stretch scheme such as ours, but there’s a lot of projection needed for him to move from prospect to player. The intrigue is obvious. If he puts it together he could be like a bigger Mostert in our scheme. But—like linebackers with subpar instincts—running backs with subpar vision have very low floors.
RB, Rasheen Ali (Marshall) is another good schematic fit for us, as his burst, wiggle, and explosiveness (FBS-leading 7 plays of 50+ yards this season) can spring big plays in our zone/stretch-based scheme. He’s undersized, lacks power, runs upright, and has fought injury issues throughout his career, but he’s got a little Matt Breida in him.
If you want tools and upside DE, Jalyx Hunt (Houston Christian) is from a school I quite literally have never heard of, but his length, athleticism, and closing speed are all intriguing. Right now he’s more of an athlete than an edge and is facing a massive jump in competition, but–if we can afford to–he’s an interesting stash and develop guy.
While Hunt likely wouldn’t contribute as a rookie, it’s not hard to see DE, Mohamed Kamara (Colorado State) carving out a subpackage role early. His size (6’1” 248 lbs.) and length are way under what NFL teams are looking for in a full-time starter, but he tested well, has a non-stop motor, and was super productive in college. Just last year he was a Second-Team All-American and he’s racked up 45+ TFLs and 30+ sacks over his college career. While it’s hard to see him being a full-timer at his size, it’s easy to see him being at least a serviceable sub-package edge rusher, and it’s impossible to have too many of those.
6TH ROUND
Dude plays primarily defense and this is his team photo
With picks 211 and 215 in a draft in which the back-end talent is questionable, we’re really just looking for someone with a fighting chance to make the practice squad. Given our roster crunch, it’s honestly easier if this guy can be stashed for the year without getting swooped up by someone else, which means we’ll be looking at a lot of developmental projects and a sprinkling of productive college guys who we’re willing to bet on despite subpar size/speed ratios. The later you get in the draft the more special teams become important (and the more likely I am to pitch every player as a potential fullback), which is why I’m going to lead off this round with…
S, Sione Vaki (Utah), who everyone and their mother has been mocking to the Niners, and—to be fair—we haven’t exactly been hiding our interest. Vaki spent three years on a Mormon mission before joining Utah and–in his second and final year in college–he was named a second-team All-American and a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award for college football’s most versatile player. While starting full-time at safety, he also played running back, rushing for 317 yards and two scores on 7.5 ypc and catching 11 passes for 203 yards and three scores. Against Cal, he rushed for 158 yards and his 72-yard touchdown was the longest of the season for the Utes (lol). He’s fast, aggressive, tough, and wired right, but he doesn’t have the fluidity, instincts, and experience in coverage quite yet. If those tools don’t develop he may never get major reps at safety. But maybe he’s a subpackage box safety? If his frame wasn’t likely maxed out I’d say maybe he’s a future starting linebacker. Or maybe we’re talking the wrong side of the ball and he’s a fullback? Honestly, this late, we should probably just draft him and find out. At worst, he’s an excellent special teamer, and even if he never starts, a special team mainstay with some positional flexibility as a depth piece is a win in the sixth round.
WR, Ainias Smith (Texas A&M) is another smaller slot who started five years at A&M, lining up inside, outside, and even–a little–in the backfield. That sort of versatility, plus his return skills, could intrigue the Niners–even if he has a lengthy injury history and may top out as a special teamer and gadget player in the NFL.
If you squint hard enough, you might be able to see some Kendrick Bourne in WR, Bub Means (Pittsburgh). He’s a good-sized dude (6’1” 212 lbs.) with strong hands and long arms to highpoint the ball and sneaky speed once he gets going. He’s not a dynamo after the catch but he can get yardage with a runway and he has kick return experience. You might have to rebuild his route-running ability from the ground up, but he’s a stash-and-develop player who gets an uptick in value for having the build to play inside or out.
At just under 6’1 and 246 pounds and lacking elite burst and closing speed, DE, Javon Solomon (Troy) was never going to be that high up on anyone’s draft board, but he’s got the arm length of a much bigger dude and leaves Troy with the single season (16) and career (32.5) sacks records. This is the rare player with TWO double-digit sack seasons on his college resume, and it could be worth taking a swing on him as a special teamer and rotational pass rush specialist.
He may be more of an H-back or move tight end in the league, but TE, Erick All (Iowa) is a nice athlete who—in the most Iowa sentence of all time—led the Hawkeyes in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns despite being a tight end and missing the final seven games with an ACL tear. He’s got good movement and ball skills all over the field and is at least capable as a blocker, but the medicals are a massive question mark after missing 18 games over the past two seasons with season-ending injuries.
If you told me there was an undersized white running back playing for New Hampshire named Dylan Laube whose closest comp was Danny Woodhead, I would say it was a bit on the nose. But RB, Dylan Laube (New Hampshire) does exist and his two-way ability is intriguing. He’s short but stocky (5’10” 206 lbs.), quicker than he is sudden, and doesn’t have the power or the deep speed and elusiveness to be a full-time running back. But he’s got return game value and–most importantly–is a highly capable receiver who can run routes out of the backfield or in the slot. While the level of competition is a concern, in his one game against an FBS opponent, he recorded 12 receptions for 295 yards (yes, neither of those are typos) and two scores.
All jokes aside, we are constantly looking for a way to take some of the load off CMC with another back who can contribute in the passing game. While a lot of guys have shown signs of contributing through the air, Laube has already done it.
Speaking of guys who can run and catch the ball, RB, Dillon Johnson (Washington) played three years in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense before becoming the lead runner during Washington’s 2023 National Title game run. The result is a guy who may not be a homerun threat but excels as a pass blocker and receiver (173 career grabs, 0 drops in 2023) and has the quick feet and feel to be effective in zone/stretch concepts.
Most corners coming out of college have the caveat that they “get grabby” at the top routes, but not CB, Chau-Smith Wade (Washington State). Listed as Bleacher Report’s top-rated slot corner(!), Wade had zero penalties as a senior and is a smooth cover man who breaks hard on the ball and is physical run support. He only played outside in college, and at 5’10” 184 lbs. he’s undersized for the position, but he’s got a little DeMo/DJ Reed undersized feistiness in him and that’s worked well for us in the past. Potential sleeper for sure.
If you’re looking for a developmental stash player along the OL, how about a dude who didn’t play OL (not even in high school) until three years ago? OT, Josiah Ezirim (Eastern Kentucky) certainly looks the part, plays with power in the run game, and was good enough to be named Second Team All-American (FCS) in just his third year ever playing the position. He’s got some questions in terms of lateral quickness and A LOT of technique to hammer out, but if there’s any way he can be stashed on the practice squad or IR, the returns could pay dividends down the road.
7TH ROUND/UNDRAFTED
Three of our seventh-round rookies were on the active roster at different points last season and both our starting QB and (almost) Super Bowl MVP Jauan Jennings were seventh-round picks. So this round is nothing to scoff at, even if simply making the active roster at some point down the road is a more reasonable goal for players picked in this range.
With Josh Dobbs and Brandon Allen competing for QB2 and QB3, picking a quarterback in this draft is far from a given. But there’s always a chance that the loser of the backup battle gets swooped up by a QB-needy team, and–this late in the draft–picking someone can’t hurt. Once considered a potential first-round pick, QB, Kedon Slovis (BYU) lit it up as a freshman at USC before falling down to Earth and bouncing between schools in the ensuing years. With solid size, underrated athleticism, decent arm talent, and a breadth of starting experience, there’s reason to think he could develop into a serviceable backup.
Despite this being his first year as a starter, RB, Emani Bailey (TCU) was a bright spot in a largely disappointing season for the Horned Frogs. He’s undersized (5’7” 202 lbs.) but is a well-built, quick-footed, and decisive gasher in the run game who shows some nice potential as a receiver (0 drops on 25 targets). The scheme fit is nice and we could do much worse this late in the draft.
Speaking of scheme fits, the diminutive RB, Keilan Robinson (Texas) will likely go undrafted but his speed, all-purpose special teams ability, and receiving potential could make him an intriguing practice squad stash.
Converted safeties who can run have been a pipeline for us at linebacker and LB, Michael Barrett (Michigan) fits that mold. Aided in part by the extra COVID year, Barrett set a school record by playing in an unimaginable 64(!) college games. A former safety, he slid down to linebacker and started the past two seasons. He doesn’t do anything splashy, nor is he as athletic as many other converted safeties, but he’s got range and smarts and never left the field for a reason.
Sticking with the whole safety turned linebacker thing, LB/S, Jamal Hill (Oregon) played safety/nickel for his first four years before moving over to inside linebacker as a super senior. Unsurprisingly, at 6’0” 216 lbs. and with a background as a safety, he had some issues dealing with bodies in the box. But he’s got great range (4.45 forty), is an experienced cover man, and flies around as a consistent, powerful tackler. He’d need developmental time and–if he can’t pack on pounds–could top out as a subpackage LB on passing downs or a Marcell Harris-type matchup-dependent tweener, but he projects well on special teams right away.
Another linebacker with 60+ college games under his belt, LB, Tatum Bethune (Florida State) is undersized (5’11” 229 lbs.) and lacks the high-end speed and athletic traits to make scouts disregard that, but he finds the ball well, plays bigger than his size, and processes incredibly well. He does the “read key -> attack” thing awfully well, and if he can stick in the NFL it’s likely because of that.
An XXL high school quarterback turned walk-on tight end turned offensive tackle, OT, Tylan Grable (UCF) is understandably raw and unrefined but he’s got excellent athleticism and has improved vastly in his short time along the OL. He’s a stash player with highly intriguing upside who may wind up at center.
OT, Garrett Greenfield (South Dakota State) has considerably more experience, with 55 starts over six years in college. A two-time FCS First-Team All-American, Greenfield is a smooth mover with good athleticism who is at his best blocking zone and stretch plays. He’s an older rookie and lacks heft and length, but he’s a nice scheme fit with some swing tackle potential down the road.
Another 25-year-old but one with a vastly different college story, CB Shon Stephens (Ferris State) was a student at five different schools over a seven(!) year period, with family health problems, eligibility, and NCAA issues causing much of the movement and preventing him from ever playing D-1 (despite mutual interest). He’s undersized but very athletic and has a knack for big plays. He started 22 games over the past two seasons (at two different schools) and was named All-American at both as he recorded 26 pass deflections and 16(!) interceptions. He also returns kicks.
WR, Isaiah Williams (Illinois) is another slot type with return capabilities. A former QB who led his team in receiving all three years that he’s played receiver, he’s savvy and good in space but is quicker than fast and his lack of top-end speed and size/strength have capped his draft stock. But he stuck out on an Illinois offense that was otherwise severely lacking in weapons and could carve out a subpackage role as an underneath guy.
Of all the Texas pass catchers in this draft WR, Jordan Whittington (Texas) is–by far– the least talked about. Despite being a five-star(ish) recruit, injuries ravaged his first three years of college before he finished his last two largely healthy. A good-sized target with decent athleticism, his professionalism, physicality, and toughness are the qualities most likely to earn him a roster spot, but he’s got some YAC ability as well.
If we’re still looking for a Juice-type, TE, Jack Westover (Washington) is a former walk-on who was third on the Washington team in receptions this year despite them having three wideouts likely drafted in the top 100 picks of this draft. He’s not a plus athlete or a powerful run-blocker, but he could carve out a niche in a scheme that asks its H-backs to do a bit of everything.
Let’s close out the watchlist with one of the more interesting deep sleepers in this draft. DE(FB?), Joe Evans (Iowa) is a quarterback turned linebacker turned rush end who didn’t get a combine invite despite leading the Hawkeyes’ top-ranked defense in sacks (9.5) and finishing his career with the fourth-most all-time in school history (28). He’s small (6-1, 246 lbs.) and pretty stiff, but he’s a high-effort guy and he put on an absolute show at his pro day, with a 4.67 forty, 6.98 three-cone, 24 bench reps, and a 41.5” vertical(!). Is he that athletic on the field? Absolutely not. But those traits plus the intangibles he’s known for could make him worth a flier, whether that’s as a subpackage DE or–potentially–at fullback (where he’s been training a bit leading up to the draft).
TLDR
We currently have seven picks on the third day but don’t expect us to use all of them. Addressing any remaining urgent needs from the first two days is the top priority before filling out the rest of our draft with guys who can contribute immediately on specials or get stashed for a year for their upside. While some argue that the third day of this draft features a steep talent dropoff and that there are fewer “draftable” players this year than in the past few, there are a bunch of guys in these latter rounds who look like possible scheme fits.
Those scheme fits include—but are not limited to—running backs with pass-catching ability, zone/stretch specialists, rangy linebackers who have potentially been converted from safeties, subpackage edge rushers, undersized but scrappy overachieving corners, bigger developmental corners, and—of course—potential fullbacks.
Go Niners 🏈👍