Final Draft Thoughts

Draft time is almost upon us. When teams are forged and contenders are built. When the filthy casuals are separated from the absolute loser football nerds. When every Eagles and Patriots mock draft gets stuffed with as many white players as is possible to defend in the year 2024.

Let’s start with John Lynch’s pre-draft press conference, which was more informative than I expected.

170. Several draft experts have talked about how this draft class falls off around the 150 mark. For the Niners, that number sits at 170. Lynch stated that the scouting department has 170 players in this class with draftable grades, a number that is lower than usual in part because of NIL.

Before the college season begins, the Niners evaluate players who they think have a 50% chance or greater of turning pro next year. This year, 83 of those players (35 of whom the Niners considered “starter grade”) decided to return to college. That doesn’t mean that at pick 171 we just call it quits and start throwing darts. Our 170 won’t line up with anyone else’s 170 (or whatever their number of draftables is), and if we have to spend a late-round pick on a guy we’d rather take as a priority free agent, then so be it, but the low number of draftable grades will likely lead to a lot of teams trying to leverage sixth and seventh-round picks into trade packages to move up higher in the draft.

22. Of the 170 draftable players, the Niners have first-round grades on 22 of them, which is less than ideal but is a higher number than we’ve had the past few years. While that number might imply that the Niners are primed to move up in the first round to secure a guy with a first-round grade, I think it’s more likely that we move down to accumulate an additional day 2 pick.

On the block. I still contend that if we move up it should only be for a truly elite prospect and/or one of the Top 6 tackles (Mims or better). But let’s talk about what a trade down could look like. The bottom of the first is always potential trade territory because teams like to lock in the fifth-year option that only comes with first-round picks. And due to the high cost of quarterbacks and how fifth-year option rates are one of the initial starting points for negotiating contract extensions, the bottom of the first is particularly appealing for teams looking for a new QB.

Is there risk involved in trading down? Absolutely. You could drop down so low that you miss out on the next tier of prospects and—if you really play it wrong—a run on a position of need could leave you out in the lurch entirely. But the upside is gaining an additional top 100 pick, and in this class, we should be able to find as many legitimate contributors as we have picks in the top 100.

As a purely theoretical exercise, pick 31 is valued the same as picks 40 and 100 combined, two picks that Washington currently has (the last one coming from us in the Chase Young trade). If a run on tackles means we’ve missed on the Top 7 guys and are staring down the likes of Jordan Morgan, Kingsley Sumataia, etc. but don’t love any of them, we could trade down, snag any of those tackles if they were to fall to 40, or take best player available at 40 and pull the trigger on someone like Blake Fisher or Roger Rosengarten when we pick again at the bottom of the round.

Of course, this is all speculative. And if one of the 22 guys we like on day one falls to No. 31, the most sensible move is to just draft him, regardless of position. But at this point, I’d consider a trade down equally (if not more) likely than a trade up.

Needs vs. Wants. While Lynch noted that the team doesn’t have a lot of “needs” for this upcoming year, he also mentioned that there are probably more starting positions up for grabs than people on the outside may expect. To me, that means the Niners will be drafting value over need (aka they won’t reach on a right tackle they don’t love in the first) and that–in addition to right tackle–immediate competition to improve cuspy positions like corner, center, and guard is on the table.

Reading the Tea Leaves. While the Niners don’t always meet with the players who they draft, a pre-draft visit to Santa Clara is the strongest possible indicator of our interest. In both of the past two drafts, we’ve hosted five of the nine players we’ve picked (plus a lengthy on-campus workout with Jake Moody). In 2019, we hosted four of our top five picks and had a substantial workout with the fifth (Mitch Wishnowsky). But–of the 20 players who’ve had confirmed pre-draft visits to Santa Clara–none of them are consensus first-round talents.

Since teams are allowed 30 pre-draft visitors, it’s safe to say some chunk of those 10 missing names (maybe all 10 of them) are first-round targets, and that the team has simply done a good job of keeping it under wraps.

But even when these visits don’t tell us exactly who we may be picking, the players we host, visit with at the combine and Senior Bowl, and/or hold private workouts with tell us a lot about the different positions we’re targeting at different points in the draft.

So what do these visits tell us?

• Offensive Line and Defensive Line will be prioritized on the first two days. We’ve hosted two offensive linemen who could be first or second-day picks and met with six others at the Senior Bowl and combine. We’ve hosted four defensive linemen who could be first or second-day picks and met with four others at the Senior Bowl and combine. 

• We like the depth at wideout on the second day–having met with seven wideouts with second- or third-round grades–but are plenty interested in guys on the third day as well.

• Tight end, linebacker, and safety all seem like highly likely picks–even if they’re most likely to happen on the third day.

The Aiyuk Of It All. Thursday should also give us the merciful end to Aiyuk trade rumors, one way or another. Despite repeated claims that the Niners don’t want to move him and Aiyuk’s own agent speaking out against trade speculation, Aiyuk’s cryptic social media presence and a horde of beat reporters’ cited sources continue to stoke the flames of a potential trade.

My stance on Aiyuk hasn’t changed. In the short term, it’s nearly impossible to envision us being a better team a year from now without him on the squad, and we all know that big changes are coming after next season one way or another. Moving Aiyuk creates a gigantic hole on our roster, we immediately become one of the worst receiving corps in the country, and all of our man-beating ability becomes sequestered in the slot—with much of it coming from our running back. That’s not sustainable and will give us a massive matchup disadvantage against some of the teams we may have to battle with to contend for another Super Bowl (Ravens, Chiefs, etc.).

In the long term, it makes just as little sense. Yes, it saves us money, but you need a number one receiver in today’s NFL unless you have a scramble-y big-armed high-level quarterback who can regularly extend plays. The Chiefs’ offense wouldn’t have worked without Mahomes’ ability to do just that. And when they weren’t blatantly holding every other play, that offense didn’t work. The Bills still had Stefon Diggs—even if he wasn’t performing at a high level—when they went on their late-season push, and Josh Allen is their run game and their pass game put into one. The Packers may have not had a No.1, but Jordan Love thrives off buying time and launching rockets over defenders and the Packers have one of the deeper corps of receiving weapons in the NFL. Sure, four No.2’s can often make up for a lack of a No.1. But without Aiyuk, we have neither.

Reports state that the Niners are looking for at least a first-round pick (reasonable) and that they don’t want to pay Aiyuk upwards of $25M/year (unreasonable). While “upwards” is the keyword here, we should be perfectly fine with paying him something in the ballpark of $25M/year as that is fair value. Deebo makes just under $24M/year and that contract was signed two years ago coming off the pandemic. The salary cap has spiked by $47M(!) in the two years since. I agree that we don’t want to pay two wideouts big money long-term, but the wideout we do want to pay that money is Aiyuk, not Deebo. And while it’s more complicated than signing one and moving off the other, that’s why salaries are back-loaded so those moves can be dovetailed over multiple years.

This is also a bad year to trade a wide receiver because the draft class is so stacked at the position that it depreciates receiver trade value. The L’Jarius Sneed trade for a future third isn’t a good comp because the Chiefs very obviously didn’t have the money to pay him and thus had to move him, which dominated their leverage. Neither is the Keenan Allen trade, as Allen is five years and countless injuries older, is worse than Aiyuk, and the Chargers were in too shitty of a cap situation to retain any leverage. But those trades still happened and that still affects Aiyuk’s value on the open market.

My prediction? He stays and we ultimately hammer out an extension earlier than we’ve sealed recent deals with Bosa and Deebo. But that doesn’t mean we won’t be sweating it out come Thursday.

One Last Chance To Look Stupid

After breezing through some potential prospect profiles, getting a general sense of the draft landscape, and trying to read as much as possible into Lynch’s pressers and confirmed and rumored pre-draft meetings, here’s a complete theoretical of how the draft could unfold. I’m not going to mock out the exact picks I would expect because I don’t think that’s particularly useful or predictive given the many variables at play. This is more like a look into how the Niners may come to their decisions this weekend, and—since I’m writing it down—what actually happens is sure to deviate wildly from what I’m about to say.

Day 1

We’re entering this draft with 22 guys with first-round grades and we’d be more than happy to take any of them at pick 31. Due to the shape of the class, we also know that there’s a high likelihood that if any of those 22 falls to us, they play a position of need. But the “if” of whether or not they fall is the big question.

We’ll have our 22 guys broken up into tiers and before the draft starts, we should be 99% certain how high we’re willing to move up (or more accurately, how much we’re willing to give up) in a potential trade-up to obtain any one of them. I have no idea what that line is, but we’ll have one.

As the day progresses, we’ll be tracking our 22 with a specific interest in runs on offensive tackle–our biggest position of need–and eyes on teams picking 5-10 spots before us. The closer it gets to our draft slot, the easier it will be to project other teams’ picks and guess who may be available once we’re on the clock. While we’re tracking players we’re interested in, we should also be tracking the movement of quarterbacks and rooting for as many as possible to go in the first round before we pick. It’s almost certain that at least four will go before we’re on the board, with the highest possible number probably six. If any of those six are still available as our number starts to creep up, we should keep that in mind for potential trade purposes. Due to the fifth-year option that only comes with first-round picks, teams are more than happy to trade into the bottom of the first round for any position, but–due to how expensive QB contracts are and how the fifth-year option price is often the starting point for contract negotiations down the road–this is doubly true for quarterbacks.

If we’re creeping into the twenties, it starts to look like our 22 are going to be off the board, and we don’t like the value (or find the opportunity) for a trade up to secure a talent we’ve graded as a first-rounder, we start hitting the phones to gauge interest in trading down. I don’t know for sure but this seems like a draft where there are a good number of guys with second-round grades. So while looking for trade partners I think about how fat those second-round tiers are. The fatter the top tier is, the harder you want to trade down and the further you’re willing to go back into the second because a fatter tier means a higher likelihood that you can get the same level of player with a trade down that you would have otherwise picked at 31.

At this point, I would say the odds are about even that–if we keep our pick at 31–we wind up with an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman. I would guess that our preference looks something like this:

1. Top 7 OT (give or take a tackle, as we grade differently)

2. Jer’Zhan Newton, Chop Robinson, one or both of the interior OL, maybe Darius Robinson, and maaaaaybe Marshawn Kneeland

3. A cornerback

Ultimately, I don’t expect one of the top 7 tackles to fall to number 31. So unless our tackle cutoff goes to 8 (which it might) and/or our OT hierarchy is different from the consensus (which Lynch hinted could be the case), an interior lineman or a defensive lineman seems more likely to be there at 31. If those DL/interior OL options are also off the board, it is almost mathematically impossible that at least one of the three corners in this range (DeJean, Kool-Aid, Wiggins) is NOT available. And the only way that happens is if someone we thought we had no realistic chance of getting has plummeted to us. In which case, we should take that person.

I don’t know where the Niners’ first-round cutoff is and where “trade down” hops all other prospects on their priority list, but the idea is quite enticing. The greatest internal factor in determining whether or not it happens could come down to how we rank and tier our tackle prospects. If we think the difference between Jordan Morgan/Kingsley Suamataia and Blake Fisher/Roger Rosengarten is minimal, why not trade down, get another pick in the top 100, and still secure a tackle we may have taken at 31?

If we can’t manage a trade down, then we pick the highest-graded dude available at the highest tier available at 31, with a lean towards positional need. Yes, that result inherently leaves some value on the floor, and squeezing value out of every selection is the name of the game, but it takes two to tango. 

Day 2

By splitting up the draft into three days instead of two, the NFL has created a feeding frenzy of trades at the top of the second round, as GMs, coaches, and owners (lol) now have an entire night and morning to look at who’s still available and convince themselves that they have to move up to secure “their guy.”

Just last year, two of the first three picks of the second round were traded. The year before, three of the top six picks were moved. As a potential buyer, this likely doesn’t concern us. But if we do end up trading down a few spots and out of the first round, it’s worth noting that (a) it’s harder than ever to predict who will be going at the top of the second because it’s harder than ever to know what teams will be making those picks, and (b) there’s typically demand for teams looking to trade up if we want to move down a SECOND time.

So how we approach this day will vary depending on what we did on day 1.

If we drafted an offensive tackle… We’re sitting pretty, as we’ve addressed our biggest position of need and now can let the draft come to us as we step into a two-round period flush with DL, WR, and CBs. I continue to think we’d be missing out on a golden opportunity by not drafting one of the defensive tackles in this draft, but is that someone like Fiske or Ruke in the second or someone more like Hall, Smith, or Dorlus in the third? Luckily the receiver class is just as flexible, with plenty of second or third-round targets, so there are various ways we can mix and match over the next two rounds.

Cornerback is an intriguing position because some guys fit our scheme well and others we probably see as slots only. I’m sure there are a few guys in this range (and later) who we see as smaller feisty players who have the makeup and skill set to play outside despite their size, but I have no idea how many of those slot-type bodies we truly think can make that DJ Reed/DeMo Lenoir kind of transition. While the safety class is not particularly strong, they could be worth mentioning in the same breath as the corners because most of the safeties of interest will be off the board on this day, and—if we’re looking at safeties and nickels—it could behoove us to hedge our bets and get a guy who can play both. I’m not sure how many of these guys have that kind of versatility, but we’ve shown the ability to play several different body types in the slot—including former safeties (Logan Ryan, Jimmie Ward)—and someone who can play would help justify spending a second day pick on a defensive back who isn’t an outside corner.

There are some interesting linebacker prospects with speed around this area as well, and that’s a bit of a sleeper position on Day 2, even if it’s more of a luxury pick that could wait until later. Finally, don’t rule out interior OL here or at the top of the third day. McKivitz had a tough year and plays a more premium position, but it was our interior that had a tougher Super Bowl. Banks is only signed for one more year, Feliciano likely hangs it up after this season, Burford didn’t take the step forward that we wanted last year, and there are a lot of guys with high floors and plug-and-play vibes lurking inside on this day.

If we drafted a defensive lineman… The second round seems earmarked for an offensive lineman. Hard to imagine someone like Kingsley or Patrick Paul would be around at the bottom of the second but Blake Fisher or Roger Rosengarten? While some may consider either a slight reach in the second, the value seems right here and they’re both high-ceiling guys who fit our scheme like a glove. There’s also a world where we don’t get a tackle on this day and instead get a guard, although in a world like that someone like Dominick Puni–with some inside/outside potential–becomes a bit more valuable. Or perhaps we really push it and wait until the late third to take a guy like Caedan Wallace. I wouldn’t suggest that method, as it would be playing with fire and more of a reach than Fisher or Rosengarten in the second, but as the draft gets deeper, beggars can’t be choosers.

As far as wideouts, corners, et al., nothing here changes from if we’d drafted an offensive tackle in the first.

If we drafted interior OL… while a massive rebuild of our OL ala the Chiefs a few years ago is certainly possible given the talent of this class and our need to improve in pass protection, it’s probably not all that likely unless the chips just fall in our favor.

If we get an OT in the second or the third after drafting a C/G type in the first it's cause someone fell to us. Like Fisher or Rosengarten at the bottom of the third. Or maybe Puni in the third for versatility if our first-rounder is slotted for center. At that point, sure. It’s value and it’s need. You can’t complain much about that. And we’ll have still gotten a good player at another position in the second.

Otherwise, we’re still on that WR/CB train looking for best available.

If we drafted a cornerback… While I’ve come around a bit to the idea of taking a cornerback in the first round, one of the many reasons I don’t prefer it is that it really forces out hand on day 2. In this situation, we still have a desperate need at OL and are all but guaranteed to miss out on tapping into the day two depth of two of the following position groups (OL, DL, WR).

That’s far from ideal, and in this scenario, it feels like WR is the most likely position to get kicked to the third day–where there should still be a handful of slot receivers and developmental guys but no one who projects as a true No.2 down the road.

If we traded down… While it’s possible we could have traded down for future assets, let’s assume the compensation for a trade down included a second-rounder and an additional pick on this day, giving us four picks in the next two rounds. That would give us a neatly packaged four picks to address OL, DL, CB, and WR–hitting each of the deep positions of this draft and addressing needs with all of them. Granted, it’s not that simple, and I could see a LB or S sneaking in there somewhere. But if we were never getting a guy who we had a first-round grade on anyway, this is the best way to fill a lot of holes before the third day even starts.

Note: Third-round maneuvering seems likely regardless of what we did in the first round. If we have a good number of players with second-round (or cuspy third-round) grades, we’ll likely be aggressive in securing one of those dudes before we get a tier drop-off into the next round. We have the most picks of anyone in this draft but seven are on the third day, so this is likely where we start using them as trade fodder. For reference, our lowest fourth-rounder could move us up around 8 spots. Our fifth-rounder could move us up 5. 

Day 3

Before the final day begins, it’s worth looking at our roster and the guys we’ve already picked so we can zero in on which positions could still use reinforcements and which are likely limited to guys we can stash on the practice squad due to roster size restrictions.

Every position is different and some can use more bodies than others. For instance, even if we extend Aiyuk and Jennings signs his tender, we’ll only have three locked-in wideouts for a position group where we usually roster five-to-six. Despite having Ronnie Bell and Danny Gray in the fold, we could easily add two receivers this draft. Similarly, at linebacker, we have Warner, Campbell, and Flannigan-Fowles but Greenlaw will start on the PUP list. And while Ezekiel Turner will likely be kept around for his special teams value, I wouldn’t be surprised if we want to throw a bunch of bodies at the position and see who emerges from the fray–whether it’s a rookie from this class or one of the two drafted last year. 

Elsewhere it gets more complicated. Since this isn’t the year 1950, we only roster one fullback. Any fullback-type needs to be able to fit on the practice squad or also play tight end. A quarterback? On the practice squad at best. Even a third-day cornerback–despite playing a position of need–would have a tough time making the active roster with three returning starters, Yiadom, Luter, Womack, and Rock Ya-Sin already fighting over a likely five total roster spots. 

This is where the math gets particularly difficult for talented teams who have fewer available roster spots. We may like a developmental player in the fourth, but if we aren’t confident he’ll make our active roster, we need to know we can stash him on the practice squad, and—until the sixth and seventh rounds come around—that’s often quite a gamble.

The workaround for this—which we saw with Cameron Latu last year—is to place a rookie on IR before the season begins. In that case, he doesn’t count against the active roster and is protected from opposing teams. But players placed on IR before the season cannot return at any point in that season, meaning this player—who needs development—won’t be seeing any of that development on the field. While they still benefit from being in a professional training program, attending all the meetings, and watching practice, development off the field can only go so far.

Given all that, here are the number of guys we could take at any given position and which positions seem the most likely to get picked on Day 3.

• Quarterback (0-1): If we pick one, he’ll come off the board in the last two rounds

• Running Back (1): we typically roster four running backs and a fullback, meaning an RB taken on the third day has a decent shot to make the team. That points to either a pass-catching specialist who might be able to get some third-down snaps (Dylan or Dillon) or an outsize zone scheme fit with the potential to take on lead backup duties a year from now (Guerendo).

• Fullback/tight end (1-2): if he’s a tight end proper, he’s got a great shot to make the team, as we typically roster four, and only one (Kittle) is a sure thing. If he’s a fullback… well, hopefully, he can play tight end too.

• Wide receiver (2-3): three wideouts sounds absurd, but that’s a testament to our lack of depth and the depth of this receiver class (also, the third would be a practice squad guy). One on day two and one on day three would be my guess, with the day three guy expected to make an immediate contribution on special teams. Cowin, McCaffrey, or Means seem the most likely on day three, but there are plenty of viable options here.

• Offensive Line (2-3): at least one guy who can compete for immediate starter reps and another developmental body.

• Defensive Line (1-3): we roster 9-10 defensive linemen at any time, so we can always take bodies here. In basically any year, we’re expecting to add at least two defensive linemen in the draft. This year, maybe we add a third. I’d expect a DT with down-the-road starter potential and either a developmental DE or a guy who we know is a subpackage rusher for life (cause we need that too).

• Linebacker (1-2): As mentioned above, this is a position group where we have a type and we have no issue throwing bodies at the position and seeing who sticks. The Oregon kid seems intriguing as a late-draft flier.

• Cornerback (1-2): Unlike linebacker, we don’t have a lot of roster spots to play with here, but if we don’t snag someone in the first two days, we may take a similar approach to the position—which would make for one of the better position battles of training camp.

• Safety (0-1): Despite the need, we can always sign a veteran replacement if Gipson opts not to return, and the safety class as a whole isn’t particularly strong. If we draft a safety, hopefully, it’s Sione Vaki.

• Specialists (goddamn better be zero, sheeeeit)

Given the lack of back-end depth in this draft class, anyone we pick up in the sixth and seventh rounds should be treated more like a priority free agent, meaning their position doesn’t matter nearly as much as early-round guys.

So What Would We Be Happy With?

Behold, the draft happiness index, an arbitrary point system for an arbitrary emotional response to a rookie draft which we can’t have a genuine informed opinion of until years down the road. Also known as “the vibe check,” “draft grades for Montessori students,” or “phoning it in because I don’t know how to end this write-up.”

Scoring works as follows:

+10: we have a new starting offensive tackle and we think he might be awesome
+5: we have a new starting guard/center and we think he might be awesome
+5: we have a new starting offensive tackle and we don’t think he sucks
+5: we draft one of the 22 players we graded as a first-round talent
+5: we successfully trade down for additional picks without giving up value
+2: we add a defensive lineman to our immediate two-deep
+2: we add a receiver to our immediate two-deep
+2: we add a corner to our immediate two-deep
+1: Roger Goodell says something lizard-like during the draft proceedings
+1: a guest picker gets hyped and goes way over their time
-1: a second guest picker gets hyped and goes way over their time
-1: an old man is tasked with announcing the selection of Ruke Orhorhoro, a name he will inevitably butcher. The older he is, the more likely he is to follow that up with a flippant comment about how he butchered the name.
-5: we pick someone in the first who we could have gotten in the second
-5: we don’t draft a wide receiver or defensive lineman until the third day
-10: we don’t draft an offensive lineman until the third day
-10: we draft a running back in the first two days of the draft
-15: we draft a specialist
-20: we trade Brandon Aiyuk

Once you tally up the score, your suggested emotional response can be found below:

Scores above 20 = LFG!!!
Scores above 10 = let’s go!
Scores below 0 = shit
Scores below -10 = fuck
Scores below -20 = your daughter has brought home her boyfriend, and it’s Bill Vinovich. She claims that the age difference doesn’t bother her so it shouldn’t bother you. They are moving into a studio apartment in Starksville, Mississippi without air conditioning because they “like the culture” there. She is pregnant with octuplets and Bill has convinced her to star in a reality show that will document their rearing. The show is titled: “Good Father, Better Ref.” It runs for twelve seasons.

Go Niners 🏈👍